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首页> 外文期刊>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B. Biological Sciences >Integrating measures of viral prevalence and seroprevalence: a mechanistic modelling approach to explaining cohort patterns of human papillomavirus in women in the USA
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Integrating measures of viral prevalence and seroprevalence: a mechanistic modelling approach to explaining cohort patterns of human papillomavirus in women in the USA

机译：含有病毒患病率和SEROPREVALENG的措施：一种机制模型方法，以解释美国女性人乳头瘤病毒的群组

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摘要

Incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) related cancers is increasing, generating substantial interest in understanding how trends in population prevalence of HPV infection are changing. However, there are no direct, population-scale measurements of HPV prevalence prior to 2003. Previous work using models to reconstruct historical trends have focused only on genital infection or seroprevalence (prevalence of antibodies) separately, and the results of these single-measure studies have been hard to reconcile. Here, we develop a mechanistic disease model fit jointly to cervicogential prevalence and seroprevalence in unvaccinated women in the USA using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (2003-2010) and compare it to fits of statistical age-cohort models. We find that including a latent HPV state in our model significantly improves model fit and that antibody waning may be an important contributor to observed patterns of seroprevalence. Moreover, we find that the mechanistic model outperforms the statistical model and that the joint analysis prevents the inconsistencies that arise when estimating historical cohort trends in infection from genital prevalence and seroprevalence separately. Our analysis suggests that while there is substantial uncertainty associated with the estimation of historic HPV trends, there has likely been an increase in the force of infection for more recent birth cohorts.
机译：人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）相关癌症的发病率正在增加，对了解HPV感染的人口普遍性的趋势如何变化，产生大量兴趣。然而，在2003年之前，HPV患病率没有直接的人口量表测量。使用模型重建历史趋势的先前工作仅集中于生殖器感染或分别的血清透视（抗体患病率），以及这些单措施研究的结果难以调和。在这里，我们使用国家健康和营养考试调查数据（2003-2010）开发了一个机制疾病模型，共同拟合了美国未接种疫苗的普遍存在和血清逆转，并将其与统计时代队员模型进行了比较。我们发现，在我们的模型中包括潜伏的HPV状态显着改善了模型适合，并且该抗体可能是观察到的Seroprevalence模式的重要贡献者。此外，我们发现机械模型优于统计模型，并且联合分析可以防止在估计生殖器普遍性和SEROPREVALING的感染趋势时出现的不一致。我们的分析表明，虽然与历史性HPV趋势的估计有很大的不确定性，但对最近出生队列的感染力可能有可能增加。

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