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首页> 外文期刊>Agroforestry Systems >Estimating the causal effect of improved fallows on farmer welfare using robust identification strategies in Chongwe, Zambia
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Estimating the causal effect of improved fallows on farmer welfare using robust identification strategies in Chongwe, Zambia

机译：使用稳健的识别策略在赞比亚崇伟估计休闲休耕对农民福利的因果关系

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Agricultural technological improvements are crucial to increase on farm production and thereby reduce poverty. However the use of improper identification strategies on the impacts of improved technologies on farmer welfare could potentially pose a threat to good practice agricultural policy making. In this study, propensity matching strategies and endogenous switching regression were used to test whether an improved fallow, a soil fertility improving technology that passed the requirements for a high impact intervention based on non randomised impact assessment methodologies could still pass this test. Using data from 324 randomly surveyed households in Chongwe district of Zambia, the rigorous econometric methods confirmed the positive impact of improved fallows on household maize yields, maize productivity, per capita maize yield and maize income. Conflicting results were obtained when a broader welfare indicatorper capita crop income, was considered. Whereas the non-randomised and kernel matching methods showed that per capita crop incomes were significantly higher for the adopters than for the non adopters, the causal effect of improved fallows on this variable was non significant when nearest neighbour matching strategy and the more robust endogenous switching regression were used. It was concluded that the technology improves welfare through increased maize and hence increased food security, and through incomes from the maize crop. The maize income derived from improved fallows were however not sufficient enough to drive the general crop income to significantly higher levels. The need to diversify the use of improved fallows on high valued crops was recommended while the importance of using better and more robust methodologies in evaluating impact of interventions was emphasised.
机译：农业技术进步对于增加农业生产并从而减少贫困至关重要。但是，对改进技术对农民福利的影响使用不正确的识别策略可能会威胁到良好的农业政策制定。在这项研究中，倾向匹配策略和内源性转换回归用于测试改良的休耕法（一种通过非随机影响评估方法满足高影响干预要求的土壤肥力改良技术）是否仍然可以通过该测试。使用来自赞比亚崇威地区324个随机调查家庭的数据，严格的计量经济学方法证实休耕对家庭玉米单产，玉米生产力，人均玉米单产和玉米收入的积极影响。当考虑更广泛的人均农作物收入福利指标时，得出了矛盾的结果。非随机和核匹配方法显示，采用者的人均农作物收入明显高于非采用者，而当最近邻域匹配策略和更强大的内生转换时，休耕对这一变量的因果关系不显着使用回归。结论是，该技术通过增加玉米，从而增加粮食安全以及通过玉米作物的收入来改善福利。但是，由于休耕改善带来的玉米收入不足以推动一般作物收入大幅提高。建议在高价值农作物上多样化使用改良休耕的需求，同时强调使用更好和更强大的方法来评估干预效果的重要性。

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