• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Psychological assessment >Actuarial Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: The Psychometric Properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)
【24h】

Actuarial Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: The Psychometric Properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)

机译：性犯罪者的精算风险评估：性犯罪者风险评估指南的心理学特性（Sorag）

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. The aims of the present field study were to examine the predictive validity of the German version of the SORAG and its individual items for different offender subgroups and recidivism criteria in sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System (N = 1,104; average follow-up period M = 6.48 years) within a prospective-longitudinal research design. For the prediction of violent recidivism the German version of the SORAG yielded an effect size of AUC =.74 (p < .001, 95% CI =.70 -. 78). The predictive accuracy for general and violent recidivism was slightly higher than for general sexual and sexual hands-on recidivism. The effect sizes were found to be higher for the child molester sample than for rapists. However, the differences were significant only for general recidivism (z = 2.48, p =.001). Further analyses exhibited the SORAG to have incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG and the PCL-R, and to remain the only significant predictor for violent recidivism once all 3 instruments were forced into a combined regression model. Twelve out of the 14 SORAG items were found to have a significant positive relationship with violent recidivism. The comparison of the relative and absolute risk indices between the Austrian and the Canadian samples showed that the normative data distribution yielded more (absolute risk indices) or less (relative risk indices) meaningful differences between the 2 countries.
机译：性犯罪者风险评估指南（Sorag）是性犯罪者最常用的精算风险评估工具之一。目前研究的目的是审查奥地利监狱系统释放的性犯罪者的德国索拉和其各个项目的预测有效性，以及奥地利监狱系统释放的性罪犯（n = 1,104;平均跟进期M = 6.48岁）在预期纵向研究设计中。为了预测暴力核查，德国版的索拉氏菌产生了AUC = .74的效果大小（P <.001,95％CI = .70 - 。78）。一般和暴力核刑的预测准确性略高于一般性和性动手常规罪行的准确性。对儿童熔融酯样品的效果大小比强奸犯更高。然而，差异仅为一般性累犯（Z = 2.48，P = .001）。进一步的分析表明，索拉格与vrag和pcl-r之外的增量预测有效性，并且仍然是所有3个仪器被迫进入一个组合的回归模型。发现了14个索勒格物品中的十二件与暴力核让人有重大的积极关系。奥地利和加拿大样本之间的亲属和绝对风险指数的比较表明，规范数据分布更多（绝对风险指数）或更少（相对风险指标）2个国家之间有意义的差异。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号