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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Evaluation of Microphysics and Cumulus Schemes of WRF for Forecasting of Heavy Monsoon Rainfall over the Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh
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Evaluation of Microphysics and Cumulus Schemes of WRF for Forecasting of Heavy Monsoon Rainfall over the Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh

机译：孟加拉国东南丘陵地区重度季风降雨预测的术微微药物和积云

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摘要

Accurate forecasting of heavy rainfall is crucial for the improvement of flood warning to prevent loss of life and property damage due to flash-flood-related landslides in the hilly region of Bangladesh. Forecasting heavy rainfall events is challenging where microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model play an important role. In this study, a comparison was made between observed and simulated rainfall using 19 different combinations of microphysics and cumulus schemes available in WRF over Bangladesh. Two severe rainfall events during 11th June 2007 and 24-27th June 2012, over the eastern hilly region of Bangladesh, were selected for performance evaluation using a number of indicators. A combination of the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme with Tiedtke cumulus scheme is found as the most suitable scheme for reproducing those events. Another combination of the single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme with New Grell 3D cumulus schemes also showed reasonable performance in forecasting heavy rainfall over this region. The sensitivity analysis confirms that cumulus schemes play a greater role than microphysics schemes for reproducing the heavy rainfall events using WRF.
机译：准确的大雨预测对于改善洪水预警至关重要，以防止由于孟加拉国丘陵地区的闪蒸与洪水相关山体滑坡导致的生命和财产损失损失。预测大雨事件挑战，其中微生物和积云的天气研究和预测（WRF）模型起到重要作用。在这项研究中，使用GRF在孟加拉国WRF中可用的19种不同组合的MicrophySics和积云表之间进行了比较。在2007年6月11日和2012年6月24日24日至​​24日至2012年6月24日的两场严重降雨事件，选择使用许多指标的绩效评估选择了孟加拉国东部丘陵地区。与Tiedtke积云方案的石粗鲁大学微妙种类方案的组合被认为是最合适的再现这些事件的方案。单时6级微球体方案的另一种组合具有新的GRELL 3D积云计划，在预测该地区的预测降雨中也表现出合理的性能。敏感性分析证实，积云方案比使用WRF再现大雨事件的微孔方案发挥了更大的作用。

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