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首页> 外文期刊>The Journal of Agricultural Science >Regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe - hotspots, regional differences and common trends.
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Regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe - hotspots, regional differences and common trends.

机译：区域气候变化对中欧和东欧农业作物生产的影响 - 热点，区域差异和共同趋势。

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The present study investigates regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe, including local case studies with different focuses in Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The area studied experiences a continental European climate and is characterized by strong climatic gradients, which may foster regional differences or trends in the impacts of climate change on agriculture. To study the regional aspects and variabilities of climate change impacts on agriculture, the effect of climate change on selected future agroclimatic conditions, crop yield and variability (including the effect of higher ambient CO2 concentrations) and the most important yield limiting factors, such as water availability, nitrogen balance and the infestation risks posed by selected pests were studied. In general, the results predicted significant agroclimatic changes over the entire area during the 21st century, affecting agricultural crop production through various pathways. Simulated crop yield trends confirmed past regional studies but also revealed that yield-limiting factors may change from region to region. For example, pest pressures, as demonstrated by examining two pests, are likely to increase due to warmer conditions. In general, higher potentials for cereal yield increase are seen for wetter and cooler regions (i.e. uplands) than for the drier and warmer lowlands, where yield potentials will be increasingly limited by decreasing crop water availability and heat under most scenarios. In addition, yield variability will increase during the coming decades, but this may decrease towards the end of the 21st century. The present study contributes to the interpretation of previously conducted climate change impact and adaptation studies for agriculture and may prove useful in proposing future research in this field.
机译：本研究调查了区域气候变化对中欧和东欧农业作物产量的影响，包括奥地利，捷克共和国和斯洛伐克的不同重点的本地案例研究。该地区研究了欧洲大陆气候，其特点是强劲的气候梯度，这可能会促进气候变化对农业影响的区域差异或趋势。为研究气候变化对农业影响的区域方面和可变性，气候变化对所选择的未来鸡尾化条件，作物产量和变异性的影响（包括较高的环境CO 2 浓度的效果）和最多研究了重要的产量限制因素，例如水可用性，氮气平衡和由选定的害虫引起的侵染风险。一般来说，结果预测了21世纪的整个地区的显着农业致力变化，通过各种途径影响农业作物。模拟作物产量趋势证实了过去的区域研究，但也揭示了产量限制因素可能从地区改变到地区。例如，通过检查两个害虫的证明，害虫压力可能由于温暖的条件而显而易见。通常，对于湿式和较冷的区域（即高地）而言，谷物产量增加的较高潜力比干燥器和更温暖的低地，通过降低大多数情况下的作物水可用性和热量，将越来越有限。此外，在未来几十年中，产量可变性将增加，但这可能降低到21世纪末。本研究有助于解释以前对农业的气候变化影响和适应性研究，并可能在提出该领域的未来研究方面有用。

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