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Deformation Forecasting Based on Multi Variable Grey Prediction Models

机译:基于多变灰色预测模型的变形预测

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摘要

The classic prediction methods take the system behavior as a stochastic process, using probability and statistics, searching the laws of massive historical data. However, since the statistical approaches are efficient with large volumes of data, they cannot work well in case of plenty information unavailable. The main purpose of the grey system theory is to predict uncertain systems behaviors' with limited number of data. It does differ from statistical analysis method as it does not deal directly with the original data and searches the intrinsic regularity of the data. In this study, deformation consisting on the crest of the Keban Dam in Turkey is aimed to determine by using multivariable grey prediction models GM(0,N) and GM(1,N). The outcomes show that GM(1,N) produces much more reliable results than GM(0,N) on prediction of deformation. The outcomes also confirm that there are very high level of relation between water level and deformation in a dam.
机译:经典预测方法将系统行为作为随机过程,使用概率和统计,搜索大规模历史数据的规律。 但是,由于统计方法具有大量数据的有效性,因此在不可用的信息的情况下,它们无法正常工作。 灰色系统理论的主要目的是预测具有有限数量的数据的不确定系统行为。 它与统计分析方法有所不同,因为它不会直接处理原始数据并搜索数据的内在规则。 在这项研究中,在土耳其凯班大坝的波峰上的变形旨在通过使用多变量灰色预测模型GM(0,N)和GM(1,N)来确定。 结果表明,GM(1,N)在预测变形上产生比GM(0,N)更可靠的结果。 结果也证实,水位与大坝中的变形之间存在很高的关系。

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