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Wealth and Volatility

机译：财富和波动性

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Between 2007 and 2013, U.S. households experienced a large and persistent decline in net worth. The objective of this article is to study the business cycle implications of such a decline. We first develop a tractable monetary model in which households face idiosyncratic unemployment risk that they can partially self-insure using savings. A low level of liquid household wealth opens the door to self-fulfilling fluctuations: if wealth-poor households expect high unemployment, they have a strong precautionary incentive to cut spending, which can make the expectation of high unemployment a reality. Monetary policy, because of the zero lower bound, cannot rule out such expectations-driven recessions. In contrast, when wealth is sufficiently high, an aggressive monetary policy can keep the economy at full employment. Finally, we document that during the U.S. Great Recession wealth-poor households increased saving more sharply than richer households, pointing towards the importance of the precautionary channel over this period.
机译：在2007年至2013年期间，美国家庭在净值中经历了巨大而持续的下降。本文的目标是研究这种衰退的商业周期影响。我们首先制定一个贸易的货币模型，其中家庭面临特殊的失业风险，以便他们可以使用储蓄部分自我保险。低水平的液体家庭财富开辟了自我实现的波动之门：如果财富贫困的家庭预计高失业率，他们有一个强烈的预防性激励削减支出，这可以预期高失业的现实。货币策略，由于零界限下限，不能排除这些期望驱动的核算。相比之下，当财富足够高时，积极的货币政策可以保持经济充分就业。最后，我们记录了在美国的巨大经济衰退期间财富贫困家庭比富裕家庭更加尖锐地增加，指出该期间预防渠道的重要性。

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