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首页> 外文期刊>The Review of Economic Studies >Policy Inertia,Election Uncertainty,and Incumbency Disadvantage of Political Parties
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Policy Inertia,Election Uncertainty,and Incumbency Disadvantage of Political Parties

机译：政策惯性，选举不确定性和政党的现役劣势

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摘要

We document that postwar U.S.elections show a strong pattern of"incumbency disadvantage":if a party has held the presidency of the country or the governorship of a state for some time,that party tends to lose popularity in the subsequent election.We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes.A quantitative analysis shows that the observed magnitude of incumbency disadvantage can arise in several different models of policy inertia.Normative and positive implications of policy inertia leading to incumbency disadvantage are explored.
机译：我们记录了审查的审查表现出强烈的“现役劣势”模式：如果一方曾担任该国的主席或一段时间的州长，那缔约方往往会在随后的选举中失去受欢迎程度。我们展示了这一点 这一事实可以通过政策惯性和选举结果中的不可预测性来解释。定量分析表明，观察到的现有性缺点的程度可能会出现在几种不同模型的政策惯性模型中。政策惯性导致现役劣势的忠实和积极影响是 探索。

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