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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Agrometeorology >Impacts of rainfall and temperature on photoperiod insensitive sorghum cultivar : model evaluation and sensitivity analysis
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Impacts of rainfall and temperature on photoperiod insensitive sorghum cultivar : model evaluation and sensitivity analysis

机译：降雨与温度对光周周期大小敏高粱品种的影响：模型评价与敏感性分析

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A combination of local-scale climate and crop simulation model were used to investigate the impacts of change in temperature and rainfall on photoperiod insensitive sorghum in the Sudanian zone of Mali. In this study, the response of temperature and rainfall to yield patterns of photoperiod insensitive sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was evaluated. Following model calibration of the cultivar at varying sowing dates over two growing seasons (2013 and 2014), a long-term simulation was run using historical weather data (1981-2010) to determine the impacts of temperature and rainfall on grain yield, total biomass and water use efficiency at varying nitrogen fertilizer applications. The results showed that model performance was excellent with the lowest mean bias error (MBE) of -2.2 days for flowering and 1.4 days for physiological maturity. Total biomass and grain yield were satisfactorily reproduced, indicating fairly low RMSE values of 21.3% for total biomass and very low RMSE of 11.2 % for grain yield of the observed mean. Simulations at varying N-fertilizer application rate with increased temperature of 2 degrees C, 4 degrees C and 6 degrees C and decreased rainfall by 25 and 50 % (W-25% and W-50%) posed a highly significant risk to low yield compared to increase in rainfall. However, the magnitude of temperature changes showed a decline in grain yield by 10%, while a decrease in rainfall by W-25% and W-50% resulted in yield decline between 5% and 37%, respectively. Thus, climate-smart site-specific utilization of the photoperiod insensitive sorghum cultivar suggests more resilient and productive farming systems for sorghum in semi-arid regions of Mali.
机译：局部气候和作物仿真模型的组合用于探讨温度降雨变化对马里苏丹区光周期不敏感高粱的影响。在该研究中，评估了使用农业生产系统模拟器（APSIM）模型的温度和降雨对屈服于光周期不敏感高粱（SORGHUM双色L. Moench）的抗光周期不敏感高粱（SoIchum）模型的响应。在不同播种日期的品种模型校准超过两个生长季节（2013年和2014），使用历史天气数据（1981-2010）运行长期仿真，以确定温度降雨对谷物产量，总生物质的影响和水利用效率在不同的氮肥应用。结果表明，用于开花的平均偏差误差（MBE）的模型性能优异，为生理成熟度为1.4天。总生物质和籽粒产量令人满意地再现，表明总生物质的总生物质的相当低的RMSE值，对于观察到的平均值的籽粒产量非常低11.2％。在不同的N-肥料施用速率下模拟，温度增加2℃，4摄氏度和6摄氏度，降雨量减少25％和50％（W-25％和W-50％）对低产量产生了非常重大的风险与降雨量增加相比。然而，温度变化的大小表现出谷物产量下降10％，而W-25％的降雨量降低，W-50％降低导致产量下降5％至37％。因此，光周周期不敏感高粱品种的气候智能场地特异性利用表明，在马里半干旱地区的高粱中有更多的弹性和生产性农业系统。

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