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首页> 外文期刊>AIDS >Insights into the rise in HIV infections, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence.
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Insights into the rise in HIV infections, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence.

机译：对2001年至2008年HIV感染人数上升的见解：贝叶斯流行证据的综合。

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate trends in prevalence of HIV infection, undiagnosed and total, among adults aged 15-44 years in England and Wales since 2001. DESIGN: Multiple surveillance systems and survey data are available to inform different aspects of the HIV epidemic in England and Wales. To coherently and consistently combine this information to estimate trends in HIV prevalence, we apply a multiparameter evidence synthesis in a Bayesian statistical framework. METHODS: The study population is stratified by exposure group and region of residence. We synthesize data from behavioural and community surveys, unlinked anonymous seroprevalence surveys, and an annual survey of individuals with diagnosed HIV infection. Prevalence estimates are given with 95% credible intervals. RESULTS: The estimated number of prevalent HIV infections in 15-44-year-olds has increased from 32,400 (29,600-35,900) in 2001 to 54,500 (50,500-59,100) in 2008, corresponding to an estimated prevalence of 1.5 per 1000 (1.4-1.7) rising to 2.4 per 1000 (2.3-2.6) in 2008. A rise in prevalence of diagnosed infection contributes substantially to the increase. There is no evidence of a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of undiagnosed infection. The proportion of infections that are diagnosed has therefore also increased. CONCLUSION: Although the increase in the proportion of infections that are diagnosed is encouraging, the rise in HIV prevalence and lack of evidence of a decrease in prevalence of undiagnosed infection suggest that diagnosis rates are not high enough to reduce the pool of individuals unaware of their infection and that new infections must be occurring.
机译：目的：评估自2001年以来英格兰和威尔士15-44岁成年人中HIV感染的流行趋势（未确诊和总数）。设计：可利用多种监测系统和调查数据为英格兰和威尔士的HIV流行的不同方面提供信息威尔士。为了连贯一致地结合此信息以估计HIV流行趋势，我们在贝叶斯统计框架中应用了多参数证据综合。方法：按接触人群和居住地区对研究人群进行分层。我们综合了行为和社区调查，无关联的匿名血清流行率调查以及对诊断出的HIV感染者进行的年度调查的数据。流行率估计值的可信区间为95％。结果：估计15-44岁年龄段的艾滋病毒流行人数已从2001年的32,400（29,600-35,900）人增加到2008年的54,500（50,500-59,100）人，相当于每1000人中有1.5人患病（1.4- 1.7）在2008年升至每千分之2.4（2.3-2.6）。确诊感染率的上升在很大程度上促进了这一上升。没有证据表明未确诊感染的发生率在统计学上显着降低。因此，被诊断出感染的比例也增加了。结论：尽管确诊的感染比例的增加令人鼓舞，但艾滋病毒的流行率上升以及缺乏未确诊感染率降低的证据表明，诊断率还不够高，不足以减少不知道其感染的人群。感染，并且必须正在发生新的感染。

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