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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Petroleum Science & Engineering >Quantifying the value fo technological, environmental and financial gain in decision models for offshore oil exploration
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Quantifying the value fo technological, environmental and financial gain in decision models for offshore oil exploration

机译：衡量离岸石油勘探决策模型的技术，环境和财务收益的价值

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This papr sugest a framework to improve the quality of investment decisions in petrolem exploration. The proposed model enables the decision-maker to consider explicity three major objectives when evaluatin new petroleum ventures financial , environmental and technological gain. The MultiAttribute Utility Theory (MAUT) proveides a logical mean of decision or conflicting objectives. The MAT is basedon the risk preference of the firm , combining the objectives in the unique additive or multiplicative model. A high -dimensional sensitivity analysis technique is used for evaluating the weitht of multicriteria decisi9on models. The main advangate of this approach is that it allows a better simultaneous change of the weight and provides indications for a robustness control. The weight are obtained by a random process and are hierarchically adjssted using the analyst preferences. This paper proposes a study case comparing the application of this methodology in exploration projeects located at five different offshore oil provinces in the Brazilian Continental Shelf. The MAUT methodology presented in this work demonstrates tha t, in osme mature areas, the advantages of exploration are restricted only to financial gain. On the other hand , other seemingly less attractive areas, such as deep horizons in deep-water basins, may represent atractive targets for new exploration as result of the interaction of technological advancement , and financial and market factors. The proposed approach allows as a resul of the sensitivity for several options and alternatives . It also provides a rational tool for manages to make decisions according to film preferences and objectives in complex oil prospects
机译：这篇论文推动了提高岩浆勘探的投资决策质量的框架。拟议的模式使决策者能够在评估新石油风险投资金融，环境和技术利益时考虑陈述三大目标。多目标实用理论（MAUT）成为决策或相互矛盾的目标的逻辑平均值。垫是基于公司的风险偏好，将目的与独特的添加剂或乘法模型相结合。高度敏感性分析技术用于评估多轨道Decisi9On模型的Weitht。这种方法的主要奖项是它允许更好地同时改变重量，并为稳健性控制提供指示。重量通过随机过程获得，并且使用分析偏好进行分层级。本文提出了一项研究案例，比较了这种方法在巴西大陆架子的五个不同海上石油省份的勘探中的应用。本作作品中展示的Maut方法表明，在OSME成熟地区，勘探的优势仅限于财务收益。另一方面，随着技术进步和金融和市场因素的相互作用，其他看似似乎更具吸引力的区域，如深水盆地中的深水盆地中的深度视野。所提出的方法可以作为几种选择和替代方案的敏感性的重构。它还提供了一个合理的工具，用于管理根据电影偏好和复杂石油前景中的胶片偏好和目标进行决定

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