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Integrating Technological and Financial Uncertainty for Offshore Oil Exploration: An Application of Multiobjective Decision Analysis

机译:整合技术和财务不确定性的海上石油勘探:多目标决策分析的应用

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Oil companies are presently facing a competitive scene due tornhigh price volatility and increasing complex decisions. In thisrnscenario, firms should have adequate decision tools to evaluaterncost and benefit impacts from the financial, environmental,rntechnological, and market factors. This paper describes arnmethodology where a decision-maker explicitly considers twornobjectives when evaluating new petroleum opportunities in anrnoffshore area – financial and technological gain. The Multi-rnAttribute Theory (MAUT) is used simultaneously to considerrnthe technological challenges of the capital budgeting processrnin an exploration and production firm. Prospects from fiverndifferent basins in an offshore area comprising distinct riskrnand objectives were selected for the proposed study. Thernmethodology presented in this work demonstrates that in somernmature areas the advantages to exploration are restrictedrnfurther only to financial gain, based upon the presentrneconomic potential of the basin. On the other hand, otherrnseemingly less attractive areas, such as deep horizons in deepwaterrnbasins, may represent potential targets for newrnexploration as a result of the interaction of financial gain andrntechnology advancement. The proposed model can providernsignificant insight into petroleum exploration and guidernmanagers to better investment decisions as well as providerninformation to decision makers regarding the efficiency ofrntechnological gain at the firm level.
机译:由于高价格波动和日益复杂的决策,石油公司目前正面临竞争。在这种情况下,公司应该拥有足够的决策工具来评估财务,环境,技术和市场因素对成本和收益的影响。本文介绍了方法学,决策者在评估离岸地区的新石油机会时会明确考虑两个目标,即财务和技术收益。同时使用多属性理论(MAUT)来考虑勘探和生产公司中资本预算过程的技术挑战。拟议的研究选择了具有不同风险和目标的近海五个不同盆地的远景。这项工作提出的方法论表明,在某些成熟地区,基于盆地目前的经济潜力,勘探的优势仅局限于财务收益。另一方面,由于经济利益和技术进步的相互作用,其他貌似吸引力较小的地区,例如深水盆地的深层地平线,可能代表着新勘探的潜在目标。所提出的模型可以为石油勘探提供重要的见识,并指导经理做出更好的投资决策,并为决策者提供有关公司一级技术收益效率的信息。

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