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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases: The official journal of National Stroke Association >The Prognostic Value of the iScore, the PLAN Score, and the ASTRAL Score in Acute Ischemic Stroke
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The Prognostic Value of the iScore, the PLAN Score, and the ASTRAL Score in Acute Ischemic Stroke

机译：急性缺血性卒中的iscore的预后价值，计划评分和星分评分

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Background: Disability and mortality represent the most relevant clinical outcomes after acute ischemic stroke. Recently, a number of prognostic models of acute ischemic stroke have been developed, but they have not been extensively validated. In this study, we evaluated the ability of 3 prognostic models including the iScore, the PLAN score, and the ASTRAL score in predicting clinical poor outcomes or mortality at 6 months in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Methods: A total of 323 patients were divided into a good-prognosis group and a poor-prognosis group based on the modified Rankin Scale. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and Pearson correlation coefficient. Results: We identified 96 (29.7%) patients with poor prognosis, including 21 who were dead. All 3 models showed good ability in predicting poor prognosis and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke (all ROC > .70). There was no difference between these 3 models in terms of sensitivity and accuracy (all P > .05). Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that the iScore, the PLAN score, and the ASTRAL score were equal in predicting 6-month poor prognosis and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Overall, there was a very high correlation between observed and expected outcomes at the risk score level. (C) 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：背景：残疾和死亡率代表急性缺血性卒中后最相关的临床结果。最近，已经开发了许多急性缺血性卒中的预后模型，但它们没有广泛验证。在这项研究中，我们评估了3个预后模型，包括Iscore，计划得分和星式评分的能力在急性缺血性卒中患者6个月预测临床差的结果或死亡率。方法：总共323名患者分为良好预后组和基于改进的Rankin规模的差的预后组。通过计算接收器操作特征（ROC）曲线下的区域来量化模型鉴别，并通过Hosmer-Lemeshow的拟合测试和Pearson相关系数评估校准。结果：我们确定了96名（29.7％）预后差的患者，其中包括21岁是死亡的。所有3种模型都显示出良好的能力，以预测急性缺血性卒中患者的预后和死亡率差（所有ROC> .70）。在灵敏度和准确性方面，这3个模型之间没有区别（所有P> .05）。结论：本研究的结果表明，ISCore，计划得分和星式评分等于预测急性缺血性卒中患者的6个月预后和死亡率差。总体而言，风险分数水平的观察和预期结果之间存在非常高的相关性。 （c）2017国家冲程协会。由elsevier Inc.保留所有权利发布。

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