The impact of Brexit on the global economy will be contained. The global economy will be insulated by the limited direct role of the UKeconomy and was a little stronger than expected in the first half of 2016. Moreover, despite the acute impacts on the UK, we expect that itsbreak with the EU will be soft rather than a sudden or total rupture, and that it will avoid falling into recession. Nevertheless, Europe faces anumber of risks to its banking sector, exports and political stability.
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