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Economic and environmental evaluation of three goal-vision based scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark

机译：丹麦基于三种目标愿景的有机奶牛养殖场的经济和环境评估

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The objective of this study was to explore the sustainability of future organic dairy farming systems in Denmark, by evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of three scenarios at the farm level based on different visions of future sustainability leading to different farm-based goals. The future sustainable organic dairy farming systems were deduced from participative sessions with stakeholders, and used to define specific scenarios and related key parameters. Parameterization of the scenarios was based on model simulations and the invoking of expert knowledge. Each scenario was designed to fulfil different aspects of sustainability. The business as usual scenario (BAU) was driven by economic incentives and implemented new technologies and measures to enhance productivity and efficiency. This scenario was expected to be the mainstream strategy of future organic dairy production in Denmark. In the animal welfare scenario (ANW), economic efficiency was subordinate to animal welfare, and measures to improve animal welfare, such as lower milk yield, extra grazing area and a deep-litter barn, were incorporated. The environmental scenario (ENV) was designed to minimize N losses into the environment, reduce emission of greenhouse gases and the use of fossil energy, and was based on self-sufficiency regarding nutrients and feed. The economic evaluation of the scenarios was based on quantification of farm profitability (i.e. net profit), whereas environmental evaluation was based on the quantification of the N-surplus per ha, emission of greenhouse gases, and use of fossil energy per kg energy-corrected milk (ECM). Compared to prolonging the current main stream strategy (BAU), the evaluation of scenarios revealed that investing in animal welfare comprised trade-offs regarding farm profitability, climate change and the use of fossil energy. In ANW, net profit per farm was almost 39 k[Euros] lower than in BAU, whereas emission of greenhouse gases and energy per kg ECM was 8% and 3% higher, respectively. Minimizing environmental impact in ENV reduced local as well as global environmental impact without an economic trade-off. Greenhouse gas emission per kg ECM was 5% lower and fossil energy use was 11% lower than in BAU. The N-surplus of ENV was 80 kg per ha, whereas the N-surplus was approximately 116 in both BAU and ANW. Prolonging the current main stream strategy (BAU) resulted in a high local environmental impact, a moderate global environmental impact and a high economic risk related to changes in milk price or costs.
机译：这项研究的目的是根据对未来可持续性发展的不同看法，基于不同的农场目标，通过评估农场三个情景的经济和环境后果，探索丹麦未来有机奶牛养殖系统的可持续性。未来的可持续有机奶牛养殖系统是从与利益相关者的参与会议中推导出来的，并用于定义特定的方案和相关的关键参数。方案的参数化基于模型仿真和专家知识的调用。每个方案都旨在满足可持续性的不同方面。 “照常营业”方案（BAU）受经济激励驱动，并实施了新技术和措施以提高生产率和效率。预计这种情况将成为丹麦未来有机乳制品生产的主流策略。在动物福利方案（ANW）中，经济效率从属于动物福利，并采取了改善动物福利的措施，例如降低牛奶产量，增加放牧面积和堆肥较深的谷仓。环境方案（ENV）旨在最大程度地减少氮素向环境中的损失，减少温室气体的排放和化石能源的使用，并基于养分和饲料的自给自足。对情景的经济评估基于对农场盈利能力（即净利润）的量化，而环境评估基于对每公顷氮剩余，温室气体排放和每千克能源校正后的化石能源的使用的量化牛奶（ECM）。与延长当前的主流战略（BAU）相比，对情景的评估表明，对动物福利的投资包括在农场盈利能力，气候变化和化石能源利用方面的权衡。在ANW，每个农场的净利润比BAU低近39 k [欧元]，而每千克ECM的温室气体排放量和能量分别增加了8％和3％。在ENV中将对环境的影响降至最低，可以在不进行经济权衡的情况下减少对本地和全球的环境影响。与BAU相比，每千克ECM的温室气体排放降低5％，化石能源使用降低11％。 ENV的N盈余为每公顷80千克，而BAU和ANW的N盈余约为116。延长当前的主流战略（BAU）会导致较高的局部环境影响，适度的全球环境影响以及与牛奶价格或成本变化相关的高经济风险。

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