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首页> 外文期刊>Annals of epidemiology >Age-specific spatio-temporal patterns of female breast cancer mortality in Spain (1975-2005).
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Age-specific spatio-temporal patterns of female breast cancer mortality in Spain (1975-2005).

机译:西班牙女性乳腺癌死亡率的特定年龄时空格局(1975-2005年)。

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PURPOSE: In recent decades, a decline in breast cancer mortality has been observed across Europe, and also in Spain. Our objective is to assess the spatio-temporal pattern during the period 1975-2005 by specific age groups (<45, 45-64, >/=65) in the Spanish provinces. METHODS: For each age group, a spatio-temporal P-spline model with a B-spline basis is used to smooth the mortality risks. Smoothing is carried out in three dimensions: longitude, latitude, and time, allowing for a different time evolution of both spatial components. The age-specific decline is calculated as the maximum of the estimated curve in each province. A confidence band for each curve is also provided. RESULTS: For the first age group (<45), the decline in the different provinces is observed between 1986 and 1991. For women aged between 45 to 64 years, the change occurs between 1990 and 1993. For the third age group (>/=65), change points range from 1992 to 2000, unlike Malaga and Cadiz where the change has not been observed in the studied period. Northern and some Mediterranean provinces are the areas with higher mortality risks for all the age groups. CONCLUSIONS: A different behavior for breast cancer mortality risks is observed for different provinces among the age specific groups. The decline of mortality is delayed for the oldest age group. Province differences in the implementation of screening programs could explain some of the observed differences.
机译:目的:在最近几十年中,整个欧洲以及西班牙的乳腺癌死亡率都有所下降。我们的目标是按西班牙各省的特定年龄段(<45、45-64,> / = 65)评估1975-2005年期间的时空格局。方法:对于每个年龄组,均采用以B样条为基础的时空P样条模型来平滑死亡风险。平滑在三个维度上进行:经度,纬度和时间,以允许两个空间分量的时间演变不同。特定年龄段的下降计算为每个省中估计曲线的最大值。还提供了每条曲线的置信带。结果:对于第一年龄段(<45岁),在1986年至1991年之间观察到了不同省份的下降。对于45至64岁之间的女性,这一变化发生在1990年至1993年之间。对于第三年龄段(> / = 65),变化点的范围从1992年到2000年,这与马拉加和加的斯不同,在研究期间未发现变化。北部和一些地中海省份是所有年龄段的死亡风险较高的地区。结论:在不同年龄段的人群中,不同省份的乳腺癌死亡风险行为不同。对于年龄最大的年龄组,死亡率的下降被延迟了。各省在实施筛查计划方面的差异可以解释一些观察到的差异。

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