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Concepts and pitfalls in measuring and interpreting attributable fractions, prevented fractions, and causation probabilities

机译:度量和解释归因分数,预防分数和因果概率的概念和陷阱

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Measures of causal attribution and preventive potential appear deceptively simple to define, yet have many subtle variations and are subject to numerous pitfalls in conceptualization, interpretation, and application. This article reviews basic concepts, measures, and problems to serve as an introduction to more detailed literature. Allowing for validity and generalization (projection) issues, epidemiologic attribution measures can serve as useful policy inputs for contrasting expected caseloads or survival times under different well-defined interventions. Nonetheless, their application in these settings requires attention to effects of the interventions besides those on the study outcome. Their use as estimates of etiologic attribution requires assumptions beyond the usual validity and statistical assumptions; these further assumptions will usually have little support or plausibility when the mechanisms of action are unknown.
机译:因果归因和预防潜力的度量在看似简单的定义上却具有许多细微的变化,并且在概念化,解释和应用中存在许多陷阱。本文回顾了基本概念,措施和问题,以作为更详细文献的介绍。考虑到有效性和普遍性(预测)问题,流行病学归因措施可作为有用的政策输入,用于在不同的明确定义的干预措施下对比预期病例数或生存时间。但是,它们在这些环境中的应用除了需要注意研究结果以外,还需要注意干预措施的效果。将其用作病因归因的估计需要超出通常的有效性和统计假设的假设;当作用机理未知时,这些进一步的假设通常几乎没有支持或合理性。

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