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首页> 外文期刊>Aquacultural Engineering: An International Journal >A stochastic approach for analysis of the influence of white spot disease, zootechnical parameters, water quality, and management factors on the variability of production of shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei cultivated under intensive commercial conditions
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A stochastic approach for analysis of the influence of white spot disease, zootechnical parameters, water quality, and management factors on the variability of production of shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei cultivated under intensive commercial conditions

机译：随机分析白点病，动物技术参数，水质和管理因素对在密集商业条件下养殖对虾凡纳滨对虾的生产变异性的影响

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摘要

We investigated the variability of shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei production by incorporating stochastic elements into deterministic stock models and determined the contribution that white spot disease, zootechnical parameters, water quality, and alternative management strategies have on variability. The model was calibrated for intensive shrimp cultivation in the State of Nayarit, Mexico. Mean annual production increased as a consequence of improved management from 8000 kg ha(-1) to 22,000 kg ha(-1) when cultivation was not affected by the disease and from 3200 kg ha(-1) to 10,400 kg ha(-1) when the disease affected production. When simultaneously considering both cases, mean annual production increased from 6300 kg ha(-1) to 16,800 kg ha(-1). White spot disease was a major factor determining variability of production. Shrimp production was particularly sensitive to levels of dissolved oxygen when management was inadequate, while final weight and mortality rate of shrimp were more sensitive when management improved. Water temperature and salinity had intermediate importance, and mortality caused by the disease and the time when mortality occurred had intermediate or low relevance. Improving management increased shrimp production and diminished variability. The duration of cultivation and stocking density were the most important management variables controlling variability of production when cultivation was affected by the white spot disease. When the disease was not present, pond size and duration of cultivation were the main factors affecting production. Starting time of aeration had relatively lower importance in determining variability, while the stochastic values of dissolved oxygen, in contrast, became most important. These results call for studies on improving aeration management to reduce variability of dissolved oxygen in ponds
机译：通过将随机因素纳入确定性种群模型中，我们研究了南美白对虾对虾生产的变异性，并确定了白斑病，动物技术参数，水质和替代管理策略对变异性的影响。该模型已针对墨西哥纳亚里特州的集约化虾养殖进行了校准。当耕作不受该病影响时，由于管理水平的提高，平均年产量从8000 kg ha（-1）增至22,000 kg ha（-1），从3200 kg ha（-1）增至10400 kg ha（-1） ），当疾病影响生产时。同时考虑这两种情况时，年平均产量从6300 kg ha（-1）增加到16,800 kg ha（-1）。白斑病是决定生产变异性的主要因素。当管理不当时，虾的生产对溶解氧的水平特别敏感，而当管理改善时，虾的最终体重和死亡率则更加敏感。水温和盐度具有中等重要性，由疾病引起的死亡率和死亡率发生的时间具有中等或低相关性。改善管理可增加虾的产量并减少变异性。当白斑病影响栽培时，栽培时间和放养密度是最重要的控制生产变量的管理变量。当疾病不存在时，池塘的大小和养殖时间是影响产量的主要因素。曝气的开始时间在确定可变性方面的重要性相对较低，而溶解氧的随机值则相反。这些结果需要对改善曝气管理以减少池塘中溶解氧变化的研究。

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