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首页> 外文期刊>Asian journal of animal and veterinary advances >General situation of beekeeping in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey and ARIMA model with the help of long-term analysis.
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General situation of beekeeping in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey and ARIMA model with the help of long-term analysis.

机译：在长期分析的帮助下，土耳其安纳托利亚东部地区的养蜂概况和ARIMA模型。

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摘要

With this study, the overall situation of beekeeping in Eastern and possible future cases in light of the available data reveals, the problem of identifying and developing some proposals aimed. This study presents a study of the current status (During the 1991-2005 period) and 15-year trend of beekeeping in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey. Study has indicated the current situation of beekeeping. At this stage, a simple proportional tables, simple index, chain index and an average annual growth rate of such analysis is used. The long-term trend analysis for the prediction of the future, the ARIMA Model Used. The 17.05% of total honey production of Turkey is produced in this region and it contains 18.33% of the total bee hives. There are a total of 4.027 villages and 841.000 beehives in the Eastern Anatolian Region producing 14.116 tons honey. Honey production per bee hive is close to the Turkish average (16.7 kg). In the 1991-2005 period, the annual average increase in the number of hives number was -2.43%; honey production decreased by -1.86% and wax production was reduced by -0.94%. According to ARMA analysis, the honey production in 2005 of 14 thousand tons, 14.6 thousand tons in 2020 would be approximately estimated. In the long term trend analysis, it was found that if honey production continues with the current techniques and information level of the farmers, no development will be achieved in honey and wax production in the long term.
机译：通过这项研究，根据可获得的数据，在东部的养蜂业的总体情况以及未来可能发生的情况揭示了确定和制定针对性建议的问题。这项研究介绍了土耳其安那托利亚东部地区养蜂业的现状（1991年至2005年）和15年趋势。研究表明养蜂的现状。在此阶段，将使用简单的比例表，简单的指数，连锁指数以及此类分析的年均增长率。 ARIMA模型用于预测未来的长期趋势。土耳其蜂蜜总产量的17.05％是在该地区生产的，占蜂巢总数的18.33％。安纳托利亚东部地区共有4.027个村庄和841.000个蜂箱，生产蜂蜜14.116吨。每个蜂巢的蜂蜜产量接近土耳其的平均水平（16.7公斤）。在1991年至2005年期间，蜂箱数量的年平均增长率为-2.43％;蜂蜜产量下降了-1.86％，蜡产量下降了-0.94％。根据ARMA分析，2005年的蜂蜜产量为1.4万吨，2020年为1.46万吨。在长期趋势分析中，我们发现，如果按照农民的现有技术和信息水平继续生产蜂蜜，从长期来看，蜂蜜和蜡的生产将无法实现。

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