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The complex dynamics of the seasonal component of USA's surface temperature

机译:美国地表温度季节性成分的复杂动态

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The dynamics of the climate system has been investigated by analyzing the complex seasonal oscillation of monthly averaged temperatures recorded at 1167 stations covering the whole USA. We found the presence of an orbit-climate relationship on time scales remarkably shorter than the Milankovitch period {related to the nutational forcing}. The relationship manifests itself through occasional destabilization of the phase of the seasonal component due to the local changing of balance between direct insolation and the net energy received by the Earth. Quite surprisingly, we found that the local intermittent dynamics is modulated by a periodic component of about 18.6 yr due to the nutation of the Earth, which represents the main modulation of the Earth's precession. The global effect in the last century results in a cumulative phase-shift of about 1.74 days towards earlier seasons, in agreement with the phase shift expected from the Earth's precession. The climate dynamics of the seasonal cycle can be described through a nonlinear circle-map, indicating that the destabilization process can be associated to intermittent transitions from quasi-periodicity to chaos.
机译:通过分析覆盖整个美国的1167个站点的月平均温度的复杂季节振荡,对气候系统的动力学进行了研究。我们发现,在时间尺度上轨道与气候的关系比米兰科维奇时期短得多(与营养强迫有关)。由于直接日照与地球接收到的净能量之间的平衡发生局部变化,这种关系通过季节性成分阶段的偶尔不稳定而得以体现。出乎意料的是,我们发现,由于地球的章动作用,局部断续动力学受到约18.6年的周期性分量的调制,这代表了地球岁差的主要调制。上个世纪的全球效应导致向较早季节的累积相移约为1.74天,这与地球岁差所预期的相移一致。可以通过非线性圆图来描述季节性周期的气候动态,这表明不稳定的过程可能与从准周期性到混沌的间歇性转变有关。

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