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首页> 外文期刊>IBIS >The possible impact of climate change on the future distributions and mumbers of waders on britain's non-estuarine coast
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The possible impact of climate change on the future distributions and mumbers of waders on britain's non-estuarine coast

机译：气候变化对英国非河口海岸未来涉水者分布和数量的可能影响

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摘要

The relationship between weather and wader distributions on non-estuarine coasts is described and used to predict how future wader distributions may respond to climate change. The distributions of eight out of nine species of wader commonly winteringon the non-estuarine coasts of Britain altered between two similar surveys, in 1984/85 and 19977 98, that covered 78% and 38% of Britain's 12 594 km of non-estuarine coastline, respectively. These eight species moved at least in part either eastwards along the winter isotherms or northwards. These changes in distribution broadly coincide with a distributional shift towards the species' respective breeding grounds and are correlated with the local winter weather over the period: increasingly mild extremetemperatures and changes in mean rainfall, mean wind speed and wind-chill. Based on the scenarios for Britain's climate in 2020 and 2080, it is predicted that the distributions of the waders will move away from the west. The non-estuarine coasts of Britain hold particularly high proportions of the international flyway populations of Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula, Sanderling Calidris afaa, Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima and Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria interpresthat are all expected to show continuing decline to 2080. Overwintering wraders appear to be good indicators of the effects of climate change.
机译：描述了非河口海岸的天气与涉水分布之间的关系，并将其用于预测未来涉水分布如何应对气候变化。在1984/85年和19977 98年间，在英国非河口海岸普遍越冬的9种涉水物种中，有8种的分布发生了变化，两次调查在英国的12 594公里非河岸海岸线上分别占78％和38％ ， 分别。这八个物种至少部分沿着冬季等温线向东移动或向北移动。这些分布变化大致与该物种各自繁殖地的分布变化相符，并且与这段时期的当地冬季天气有关：极端温和的气温逐渐升高以及平均降雨量，平均风速和风寒的变化。根据2020年和2080年英国气候的情景，预计涉水者的分布将远离西方。英国的非河口海岸在环行珩科鱼Charadrius hiaticula，Sanderling Calidris afaa，Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima和Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria等国际飞行航线种群中占特别高的比例，预计到2080年它们都将持续下降。气候变化影响的良好指标。

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