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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Applied Mathematics & Statistics >Vector Autoregressive Model to Analyze the Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserves on Price Level
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Vector Autoregressive Model to Analyze the Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserves on Price Level

机译：矢量自回归模型，分析外汇储备对价格水平的影响

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摘要

With the deepening of reform and opening up, China's foreign exchange reserve increased faster in recent years. However, As China use fixed exchange rate, so that the China's central bank should issue more domestic currency to deal with the increasing amount of foreign exchange reserves. In this paper, we use the vector autoregressive model to analysis the relationship between China's foreign exchange reserve and the consumer price index. The result shows that foreign exchange reserves is the granger reason to CPI rising, foreign exchange reserves increased 1% can drive consumer price index increased 0.14 % in the next month. Based on the cholesky decomposition, the result shows that the contribution degree of foreign exchange reserves to CPI in about 25.9%, so that the raising of foreign exchange reserves will impact on inflation.
机译：随着改革开放的不断深入，近年来我国外汇储备增长较快。但是，由于中国使用固定汇率，因此中国中央银行应发行更多本币以应对不断增加的外汇储备。本文采用向量自回归模型分析了中国外汇储备与居民消费价格指数之间的关系。结果表明，外汇储备是CPI上涨的更大原因，外汇储备增加1％可以带动下个月居民消费价格指数上涨0.14％。基于cholesky分解，结果表明，外汇储备对CPI的贡献度约为25.9％，因此外汇储备的增加会影响通货膨胀。

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