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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Biometeorology: Journal of the International Society of Biometeorology >Principal sequence pattern analysis of episodes of excess mortality due to heat in the Barcelona metropolitan area
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Principal sequence pattern analysis of episodes of excess mortality due to heat in the Barcelona metropolitan area

机译：巴塞罗那大都市地区因高温造成的超额死亡事件的主序列模式分析

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摘要

The aim of the study is to classify the synoptic sequences associated with excess mortality during the warm season in the Barcelona metropolitan area. To achieve this purpose, we undertook a principal sequence pattern analysis that incorporates different atmospheric levels, in an attempt at identifying the main features that account for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric processes. The sequence length was determined by the short-term displacement between temperature and mortality. To detect this lag, we applied the cross-correlation function to the residuals obtained from the modelling of the daily temperature and mortality series of summer. These residuals were estimated by means of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A 7-day sequence emerged as the basic temporal unit for evaluating the synoptic background that triggers the temperature related to excess mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area. The principal sequence pattern analysis distinguished three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, which can be associated with heat waves recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation associated with the persistence of a blocking anticyclone over Europe, related to heat waves recorded in northern and central western Europe.
机译：该研究的目的是对与巴塞罗那大都市区暖季期间超额死亡率相关的天气序列进行分类。为了达到这个目的，我们进行了包含不同大气水平的主序模式分析，以试图找出解释动态和热力学大气过程的主要特征。序列长度由温度和死亡率之间的短期位移确定。为了检测这种滞后，我们将互相关函数应用于从夏季的每日温度和死亡率序列建模中获得的残差。这些残差通过自回归综合移动平均值（ARIMA）模型进行估算。 7天的序列作为评估天气背景的基本时间单位出现，该天气背景触发了巴塞罗那大都市地区与过度死亡相关的温度。主序模式分析区分了三种主要天气模式：由与大西洋低气压有关的南方通量产生的两种动态构型，可以与在南欧记录的热浪有关，而第三种模式由与南极持续性有关的停滞状况确定。与欧洲北部和中西部记录的热浪有关的欧洲上空的阻塞性反气旋。

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