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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society >Simulation of extreme temperature events by a stochastic weather generator: effects of interdiurnal and interannual variability reproduction
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Simulation of extreme temperature events by a stochastic weather generator: effects of interdiurnal and interannual variability reproduction

机译：随机天气发生器模拟极端温度事件：日际和年际变异性再现的影响

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摘要

A WGEN-like four-variate (maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) stochastic daily weather generator Met&Roll is used to provide synthetic weather series for models simulating crop growth and hydrological regime in present and changed climate conditions. Since impacts of climate change will be largely affected by changes in climate variability and extreme events, present climate models should satisfactorily reproduce both interdiurnal and interannual variability of the weather series and the occurrence of extremes. Three improvements of Met&Roll aiming at a better reproduction of interdiurnal and interannual variability have been introduced: (i) lag-0 and lag-1 correlations among solar radiation and daily extreme temperatures are allowed to vary during a year; (ii) a Markov chain of the third order (instead of the first order) is used to model precipitation occurrence; (iii) the synthetic daily weather series is adjusted to fit the series of the monthly means, which is generated using the four-variate first-order autoregressive (AR) model. Model performance regarding the simulation of extreme temperature events is evaluated against observations at 83 stations covering most of Europe. None of the improvements of the generator lead to a generally better reproduction of extreme high and low temperatures (1 day extremes); the basic version of the generator performs best for annual maxima, whereas the inclusion of the annual cycle of correlations slightly enhances the simulation of annual minima. For multiday extremes, the incorporation of the monthly generator tends to improve heat- and cold-wave characteristics, mainly the chaining of hot and cold days in spells; in western and central Europe, it improves (worsens) the simulation of heat waves (cold waves). Bad reproduction of most extreme event characteristics out of western and central Europe indicates a limited applicability of a generator based on the first-order AR model for temperature outside the mild climate zone and in areas with a high degree of continentality. The validity of assumptions of the generator should be tested using weather series related to a given area before its application in impact studies, and, if necessary, adjustments must be made.
机译：类似于WGEN的四变量（最高和最低温度，降水和太阳辐射）随机每日天气生成器Met＆Roll用于为模拟当前和不断变化的气候条件下的作物生长和水文状况的模型提供合成天气序列。由于气候变化的影响将在很大程度上受到气候变化和极端事件的影响，因此，目前的气候模型应令人满意地再现天气序列的日际和年际变化以及极端事件的发生。为了更好地再现日间和年际变化，对Met＆Roll进行了三项改进：（i）在一年中允许太阳辐射与每日极端温度之间的lag-0和lag-1相关性变化; （ii）使用三阶（而不是一阶）的马尔可夫链来模拟降水的发生; （iii）调整合成的每日天气序列，以适应使用四变量一阶自回归（AR）模型生成的月均数序列。根据在欧洲大部分地区的83个站点的观测结果，评估了有关模拟极端温度事件的模型性能。发电机的任何改进都不能使极端高温和低温（极端情况下为1天）的再生效果更好。生成器的基本版本对于年度最大值表现最佳，而将年度相关周期包括在内会略微增强年度最小值的模拟。对于多日极端情况，结合使用月度生成器往往会改善热浪和冷浪特征，主要是热天和冷天的连锁反应。在西欧和中欧，它改善（恶化）了热浪（冷浪）的模拟。西欧和中欧大多数极端事件特征的再现不良，表明基于一阶AR模型的发电机在温和气候区以外和高度大陆性地区的温度适用性有限。在将其应用于影响研究之前，应使用与给定区域相关的天气序列来检验发电机假设的有效性，并且，如有必要，必须进行调整。

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