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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control >Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty
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Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

机译：不确定性条件下信息分析对地质储层中二氧化碳存储量充分监测的价值

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摘要

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO_2), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses inthe context of monitoring CO_2 storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertaintymust satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.
机译：由于监测对于正确管理二氧化碳（CO_2）的地质储藏至关重要，因此从监测中获取信息价值的能力对于充分设计监测程序必不可少。有必要判断预期的管理改进是否值得进行监视。信息的价值（VOI）与通过收集信息而获得的预期效用的可能增加密切相关，信息的概念可以应用于这种判断。尽管在决策分析的背景下对VOI分析进行了广泛的研究，但很少将其应用于二氧化碳捕集与封存（CCS）操作管理。本文介绍并讨论了在监测CO_2储存的情况下进行VOI分析的方法。具有离散概率的激励问题用于说明VOI的概念。事实证明，信息并不总是有价值的。为了使信息有价值，不确定性下的监视必须满足某些条件。然后将此概念扩展到连续概率分布。研究了先前不确定性和信息可靠性对VOI的影响。结果表明，信息准确性的过度提高产生的价值很小，并且可以推断出最佳的可靠性水平。 VOI分析提供了对信息收集活动的价值的定量见解，因此可以成为适当设计和公正证明监视程序的客观手段。

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