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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Logistics Systems and Management >Model for identification of effects of demand prediction on bullwhip effect using adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system
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Model for identification of effects of demand prediction on bullwhip effect using adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system

机译：基于自适应网络的模糊推理系统识别需求预测对牛鞭效应的影响模型

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摘要

The purpose of supply chain management is to lower the overall cost of chain and this has led to the chain being in need of mutual collaboration of its components. One of the phenomena that expose the coordination of supply chain to challenges is a phenomenon called the bullwhip effect. Following the study of previous research and using the expertise of experts, this research identifies the effective components on the quantity of demand. Then, seeking the opinion of experts in the industry under study (the automotive parts industry), the set of rules for fuzzy inference system were exploited and the model for prediction of single-level supply change was developed. Furthermore, in order to assess the effect of developed model on bullwhip effect, the results of conducted predictions were compared to each other through the conventional model and technique of company (regression method) and the trend analysis method.
机译：供应链管理的目的是降低链的总体成本，这导致链需要其组件之间的相互协作。供应链协调面临挑战的现象之一就是牛鞭效应。在对之前的研究进行了研究之后，并利用专家的专业知识，这项研究确定了需求量的有效组成部分。然后，根据研究行业（汽车零部件行业）专家的意见，开发了模糊推理系统的规则集，并开发了单级供应变化预测模型。此外，为了评估开发的模型对牛鞭效应的影响，通过公司的常规模型和技术（回归法）和趋势分析法将进行的预测的结果相互比较。

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