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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Technology Management: The Journal of the Technology Management of Technology, Engineering Management, Technology Policy and Strategy >Foresight - refining the process
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Foresight - refining the process

机译：远见卓识-完善流程

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摘要

The use of foresight as a tool in national research and technology planning exercises has increased markedly over the past decade, as a consequence of the pressures of the emerging knowledge economy, constraints on government spending, the new emphasis in organizations on learning, networks and relationships, and changes in the structures of knowledge production. It is therefore timely to invest in evaluation of and learning from these experiences. That the business management focus in addressing the future is far more on issues of structure and culture, such as flexibility, adaptability and tolerance for ambiguity, than it is on tools such as foresight, suggests the need for a much closer linking of foresight to other company considerations. Three particular areas of challenge are identified. The first is linking foresight more effectively with strategy and action, through better engagement of and with key stakeholders. The second is the development and refinement of the range of foresight techniques with a clear appreciation of their appropriate arena of application. The third is to acknowledge the cultural dimension of foresight, and to apply it with an awareness of the potential cultural constraints. An alternative framework for foresight, modelled on 'participatory policy analysis', is proposed to improve the interface of foresight with political and administrative decision making process. [References: 28]
机译：由于新兴的知识经济的压力，政府支出的限制，组织对学习，网络和关系的新重视，过去十年来，将远见作为国家研究和技术规划活动的工具已显着增加，以及知识生产结构的变化。因此，应及时投资于对这些经验的评估和学习。业务管理着眼于未来的重点更多地放在结构和文化问题上，例如灵活性，适应性和对歧义的容忍性，而不是远见之类的工具，这表明有必要将远见与其他方面紧密联系起来。公司注意事项。确定了三个特定的挑战领域。首先是通过关键利益相关者的更好参与和与他们的更有效地将远见与战略和行动联系起来。第二个是对远见技术范围的发展和完善，并清楚地了解了它们的适用领域。第三是承认远见的文化意义，并在意识到潜在的文化约束的情况下加以运用。提出了一种以“参与性政策分析”为模型的替代性预见框架，以改善预见性与政治和行政决策过程的接口。 [参考：28]

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