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Landscape history, fragmentation, and patch occupancy: Models for a forest bird with limited dispersal

机译：景观历史，碎片化和斑块占用：有限传播的森林鸟类模型

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We developed and tested patch occupancy models for an endemic understory bird with limited dispersal ability, the Chucao Tapaculo (Scelorchilus rubecula), in two South American temperate rain forest landscapes that differed in levels and duration of forest loss. We assessed cover changes since 1961 in each landscape and surveyed patches for Chucao Tapaculo occupancy. We then developed incidence-based predictive models independently for each landscape and tested each model reciprocally in the alternative study area. We thereby assessed the domain of model applicability and identified those predictor variables with general effects and those that varied between the two landscapes. The two models were consistent regarding variable selection, and predictive accuracy of each model was high in the landscape where training data were collected. However, the models differed substantially in the magnitudes of effects related to patch size, with larger unoccupied patches observed in the landscape with the more advanced stage of fragmentation. Due to this discrepancy, each model performed poorly when applied to the alternative landscape, potentially reflecting the contrasting stages of habitat loss. Although it was impossible to dissociate effects of level and duration of forest loss, we viewed the landscapes as representing two extremes along a continuum of fragmentation, providing insights into potential trajectories for portions of the biome where deforestation is occurring. Further, our data suggest that static equilibrium models developed from distribution patterns in recently fragmented landscapes may overestimate persistence when used as a forecasting tool, or when extrapolated to alternative landscapes where fragmentation is more advanced. Thus, we suggest that landscapes used as standards for model building should be selected with caution. We recommend that distribution patterns be obtained from landscapes where fragmentation is advanced, preferably with histories of fragmentation long enough that time-delayed extinctions already would have occurred.
机译：我们在南美南美温带雨林景观中，对散布能力有限的地方性稀有鸟类Chucao Tapaculo（Scelorchilus rubecula）开发和测试了斑块占用模型，该地区在森林流失的程度和持续时间方面有所不同。自1961年以来，我们评估了每种景观的覆盖变化，并调查了楚草塔帕库洛（Cucao Tapaculo）的使用面积。然后，我们针对每种情况分别开发了基于发病率的预测模型，并在替代研究区域中相互进行了每种模型的测试。因此，我们评估了模型适用性的范围，并确定了具有一般影响的预测变量以及在两种情况之间变化的变量。这两个模型在变量选择上是一致的，并且在收集训练数据的环境中，每个模型的预测准确性很高。但是，这些模型在与斑块大小有关的影响大小上存在显着差异，在景观中观察到较大的未占用斑块，并且具有更高级的破碎阶段。由于这种差异，将每个模型应用于替代景观时效果都较差，可能反映出栖息地丧失的对比阶段。虽然不可能消除森林流失的程度和持续时间的影响，但我们认为这些景观代表了一系列破碎的两个极端，从而提供了对正在发生森林砍伐的生物群系部分潜在轨迹的见解。此外，我们的数据表明，当用作预测工具或将其推断为破碎程度更高的替代景观时，从最近破碎的景观中的分布模式开发的静态均衡模型可能会高估持久性。因此，我们建议谨慎选择用作模型构建标准的景观。我们建议从碎片化程度较高的景观中获取分布模式，最好是碎片化的历史足够长，以至于已经发生了延时灭绝。

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