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首页> 外文期刊>Ecological Applications >Test of a behavior-based individual-based model: Response of shorebird mortality to habitat loss
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Test of a behavior-based individual-based model: Response of shorebird mortality to habitat loss

机译：基于行为的个体模型的测试：水鸟死亡率对栖息地丧失的响应

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In behavior-based individual-based models (IBMs), demographic functions are emergent properties of the model and are not built into the model structure itself, as is the case with the more widely used demography-based IBMs. Our behavior-based IBM represents the physiology and behavioral decision making of individual animals and, from that, predicts how many survive the winter nonbreeding season, an important component of fitness. This paper provides the first test of such a model by predicting the change in winter mortality of a charadriid shorebird following removal of intertidal feeding habitat, the main effect of which was to increase bird density. After adjusting one calibration parameter to the level required to replicate the observed mortality rate before habitat loss, the model predicted that mortality would increase by 3.65%, which compares well with the observed increase of 3.17%. The implication that mortality was density-dependent was confirmed by predicting mortality over a range of bird densities. Further simulations showed that the density dependence was due to an increase in both interference and depletion competition as bird density increased. Other simulations suggested that an additional area of mudflat, equivalent to only 10% of the area that had been lost, would be needed by way of mitigation to return mortality to its original level. Being situated at a high shore level with the flow of water in and out impeded by inlet pipes, the mitigating mudflat would be accessible to birds when all mudflats in the estuary were covered at high tide, thus providing the birds with extra feeding time and not just a small replacement mudflat. Apart from providing the first, and confidence-raising, test of a behavior-based IBM, the results suggest (1) that the chosen calibration procedure was effective; (2) that where no new fieldwork is required, and despite being parameter rich, a behavior-based IBM can be parameterized quickly (few weeks), and thus cheaply, because so many of the parameter values can be obtained from the literature and are embedded in the model; and (3) that behavior-based IBMs can be used to explore system behavior (e.g., the role of depletion competition and interference competition in density-dependent mortality).
机译：在基于行为的基于个人的模型（IBM）中，人口统计功能是模型的新兴属性，而不是像在更广泛使用的基于人口统计学的IBM中那样，未内置于模型结构本身中。我们基于行为的IBM代表了个体动物的生理和行为决策，并据此预测了冬季非繁殖季节（适应性的重要组成部分）中有多少存活。本文通过预测潮间带觅食栖息地移除后甲状shore的冬季死亡率的变化，对该模型进行了首次测试，其主要作用是增加鸟类密度。将一个校准参数调整到复制生境丧失之前观察到的死亡率所需的水平后，该模型预测死亡率将增加3.65％，与观察到的3.17％的增加相比较。通过预测一系列鸟类密度的死亡率，可以证实死亡率与密度有关。进一步的模拟表明，密度依赖性是由于鸟类密度增加而干扰和耗竭竞争增加所致。其他模拟表明，通过缓解措施，需要增加泥滩的面积，仅相当于损失面积的10％，才能使死亡率恢复到原来的水平。由于处于高岸水平，进水管阻止水的进出，当河口的所有滩涂都被高潮覆盖时，减缓的滩涂将被禽类所接近，从而为禽类提供了额外的觅食时间而不会只是一个小的替换泥滩。除了提供基于行为的IBM的首次测试（提高信任度）之外，结果还表明（1）所选的校准程序有效; （2）在不需要新的现场工作且尽管参数丰富的情况下，基于行为的IBM可以快速（几个星期）进行参数化，因此价格便宜，因为可以从文献中获得很多参数值，并且嵌入模型; （3）基于行为的IBM可用于探索系统行为（例如，耗竭竞争和干扰竞争在依赖密度的死亡率中的作用）。

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