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Separation and Hedging Results with State-Contingent Production

机译:状态依存生产的分离和对冲结果

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摘要

A state-contingent model of production under uncertainty is developed and compared with more traditional models of production under uncertainty. Producer behaviour with both production and price risk, in the presence and in the absence of futures andforward markets, is analysed in this state-contingent framework. Conditions for the optimal hedge to be positive or negative are derived. We also show that, under plausible conditions, a risk-averse producer facing price uncertainty and the ability to hedge price risk will never willingly adopt a nonstochastic technology. New separation results, which hold in the presence of both price and production risk, are then developed. These separation results generalize Townsend's spanning results by reducing the number of necessary forward markets by one.
机译:建立了不确定状态下的状态偶然生产模型,并将其与不确定性下的更多传统生产模型进行比较。在此状态临时框架下,分析存在和不存在期货和远期市场的情况下,生产者既有生产风险又有价格风险的行为。得出最佳对冲为正或负的条件。我们还表明,在合理的条件下,面对价格不确定性和规避价格风险能力的规避风险的生产者永远不会愿意采用非随机技术。然后开发新的分离结果,该分离结果同时存在价格和生产风险。这些分离结果将必要的期货市场数量减少了一个,从而概括了汤森德的跨越结果。

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