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Bifurcations and chaos in ecology: lynx returns revisited

机译：生态学中的分叉与混乱：山猫回归

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摘要

One of the most popular data sets in ecology, that of lynx fur returns, is analysed in order to look for evidence for a bifurcation process. This bifurcation seems to be present from the observation of sudden shifts in the amplitude of oscillations of the lynx time series. Schaffer first proposed the possibility for such a bifurcation in 1985, and suggested that a possible source for the qualitative change of lynx's fluctuations was an increased trapping effort, which eventually lead to high-amplitude, chaotic dynamics. By studying the available information from the Hudson Bay Company records, we have found evidence for such an increased trapping pressure that (i) rapidly rose close to the shift from low-amplitude to large-amplitude fluctuations around 1820, and (ii) decreased around 1910, when there is another shift again to damped small oscillations. Although an increase in the top-predator mortaliy in a three-species food web typically leads to simpler dynamics and eventual predator extinction, here we show that a recent model involving a minimum bound in the lynx population, due to the presence of alternative prey in the lynx diet, consistently supports the presence of a bifurcation phenomenon.
机译：为了寻找分叉过程的证据，分析了生态学中最流行的数据集之一，即山猫皮毛返回值。通过观察天猫座时间序列振荡幅度的突然变化，似乎出现了这种分歧。 Schaffer于1985年首次提出了发生这种分歧的可能性，并提出山猫波动的质变的可能来源是增加的诱捕力，最终导致了高振幅，混沌动力学。通过研究哈德逊湾公司记录中的可用信息，我们发现了诱集压力增加的证据：（i）在1820年左右迅速上升，从低振幅向大振幅波动转变，（ii）下降了1910年，当又一次转移到阻尼小振动时。尽管三物种食物网中顶级捕食者死亡率的增加通常会导致动力学更简单，最终导致捕食者灭绝，但在此我们展示了一种由于天牛中存在替代猎物而涉及天猫种群最小限度的最新模型。天猫的饮食，一贯支持分叉现象的存在。

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