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首页> 外文期刊>EuroChoices >Food commodity prices in the long run: the crucial role of agricultural research and productivity.
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Food commodity prices in the long run: the crucial role of agricultural research and productivity.

机译：从长远来看，粮食商品价格：农业研究和生产力的关键作用。

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Over the past 50 years and longer, the supply of food commodities has grown faster than the effective market demand, in spite of increasing population and per capita incomes. Consequently, the real (deflated) prices of food commodities have steadily trended down. The past increases in agricultural productivity and production, and the resulting real price trends, are attributable in large part to technological changes enabled by investments in agricultural R&D. A range of evidence indicates a slowdown in the long-term path of agricultural productivity growth. A slowdown in the long-term rate of growth can be difficult to discern in the context of myriad other secular and random changes, and even more difficult to attribute among potential causes. It seems likely that at least some of the recent slowdown in productivity growth is attributable to shifts in agricultural R&D spending: a progressive slowing down in the growth rate of total spending on agricultural R&D and a redirection of the funds away from farm productivity that began 20-30 years ago. The effects of a productivity slowdown are cumulative and enduring with potentially serious consequences. Regardless of what caused the slowdown in productivity, a restoration of past growth rates is likely to require an acceleration of spending on farm-productivity-oriented R&D.Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-692X.2010.00144.x
机译：在过去的50年甚至更长的时间里，尽管人口和人均收入有所增加，但粮食商品的增长速度却超过了有效的市场需求。因此，粮食商品的实际（紧缩）价格稳步下降。过去农业生产力和产量的增长，以及由此产生的实际价格趋势，在很大程度上归因于对农业研发投入的技术变革。一系列证据表明，农业生产率增长的长期路径正在放缓。在无数其他长期变化和随机变化的背景下，很难确定长期增长率的下降，甚至更难归因于潜在原因。近期至少部分生产率增长放缓似乎可能归因于农业研发支出的转移：农业研发总支出增长率的逐步放缓以及从开始于20的农业生产率的资金转移-30年前生产率下降的影响是累积性的，并且会持续下去，并可能带来严重的后果。无论造成生产力下降的原因是什么，恢复过去的增长率都可能需要加快对以农业生产力为导向的研发的支出。Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1746- 692X.2010.00144.x

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