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首页> 外文期刊>Global change biology >Amazon's vulnerability to climate change heightened by deforestation and man-made dispersal barriers.
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Amazon's vulnerability to climate change heightened by deforestation and man-made dispersal barriers.

机译：毁林和人为分散的障碍加剧了亚马逊对气候变化的脆弱性。

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Species migrations in response to climate change have already been observed in many taxonomic groups worldwide. However, it remains uncertain if species will be able to keep pace with future climate change. Keeping pace will be especially challenging for tropical lowland rainforests due to their high velocities of climate change combined with high rates of deforestation, which may eliminate potential climate analogs and/or increase the effective distances between analogs by blocking species movements. Here, we calculate the distances between current and future climate analogs under various climate change and deforestation scenarios. Under even the most sanguine of climate change models (IPSL_CM4, A1 b emissions scenario), we find that the median distance between areas in the Amazon rainforest and their closest future (2050) climate analog as predicted based on just temperature changes alone is nearly 300 km. If we include precipitation, the median distance increases by over 50% to >475 km. Since deforestation is generally concentrated in the hottest and driest portions of the Amazon, we predict that the habitat loss will have little direct impact on distances between climate analogs. If, however, deforested areas also act as a barrier to species movements, nearly 30% or 55% of the Amazon will effectively have no climate analogs anywhere in tropical South America under projections of reduced or Business-As-Usual deforestation, respectively. These 'disappearing climates' will be concentrated primarily in the southeastern Amazon. Consequently, we predict that several Amazonian ecoregions will have no areas with future climate analogs, greatly increasing the vulnerability of any populations or species specialized on these conditions. These results highlight the importance of including multiple climatic factors and human land-use in predicting the effects of climate change, as well as the daunting challenges that Amazonian diversity faces in the near future.
机译：在全球许多分类学类别中已经观察到响应气候变化的物种迁移。但是，尚不确定物种是否能够跟上未来的气候变化。对于热带低地热带雨林而言，保持同步节奏尤其具有挑战性，因为它们的高气候变化速度和高毁林率可能会消除潜在的气候类似物和/或通过阻止物种移动而增加类似物之间的有效距离。在这里，我们计算了各种气候变化和森林砍伐情景下当前和未来气候类似物之间的距离。即使在最乐观的气候变化模型（IPSL_CM4，A1 b排放情景）下，我们也发现仅根据温度变化预测的亚马逊雨林区域与其最接近的未来（2050年）气候类似物之间的中值距离就接近300公里如果包括降水，中位距离将增加50％以上，> 475 km。由于森林砍伐通常集中在亚马逊地区最热和最干燥的地区，因此我们预测栖息地的丧失对气候类似物之间的距离几乎没有直接影响。但是，如果砍伐森林的地区也成为物种迁移的障碍，那么在分别减少或按常规砍伐森林的预测下，将近30％或55％的亚马逊将在南美热带地区的任何地方都没有有效的气候类似物。这些“消失的气候”将主要集中在亚马逊东南部。因此，我们预测几个亚马逊生态区将没有未来气候类似物的地区，这将大大增加任何专门针对这些条件的种群或物种的脆弱性。这些结果凸显了在预测气候变化的影响时包括多种气候因素和人类土地利用的重要性，以及亚马逊物种在不久的将来面临的严峻挑战。

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