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Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions

机译：北极甲烷排放对气候变暖的强烈大气化学反馈

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摘要

The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a "state of the art" atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH _4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH_4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO_2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming.
机译：北极地区未来甲烷释放的量和反馈尚不清楚。尽管有关永久冻土融化和甲烷水合物脱气的潜在未来释放的文献报道有限，但未来甲烷释放的巨大潜力仍需要人们进一步了解气候变化与北极过程和大气化学反应之间的相互作用。在这里，我们应用“最先进的”大气化学迁移模型来显示CH_4的大量排放可能会对大气的化学成分和辐射强迫（RF）产生意想不到的巨大影响。额外的甲烷排放对RF的间接影响尤为重要。结果表明，如果全球甲烷排放量比当前排放量增加2.5和5.2倍，那么对RF的间接贡献将分别约为RF的250％和400％，而RF可以单独归因于直接排放的甲烷。假设与多年冻土融化，浅层海水水合物脱气和海底滑坡有关的CH_4释放的几种假想情景，我们通过大气化学发现了对RF的强烈正反馈。尤其是，由于大气化学过程的延长，CH4的寿命以及大气中大量的臭氧，平流层水蒸气和CO_2的影响，CH4的影响得以增强。尽管排放情景存在不确定性，但我们的结果可以更好地理解大气化学反应会加剧气候变暖。

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