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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering >Impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of floods in the Chateauguay River basin, Canada
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Impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of floods in the Chateauguay River basin, Canada

机译：气候变化对加拿大Chateauguay流域洪水频率和严重性的影响

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This study aims at evaluating the hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Chateauguay River basin in the province of Quebec, Canada. Three global climate models (GCMs) covering a range of climate sensitivities were selected, and their output was employed to adjust the parameters of a stochastic weather generator using simple transformation rules for precipitation and temperature. Values of monthly precipitation and temperature were extracted from the GCMs for the current (1960-1990) and future (2040-2060) climate. The International Panel on Climate Change emission scenario known as B2 was selected. It represents an average scenario and corresponds approximately to a doubling of the atmospheric CO_2 concentration. Resorting to stochastically generated climate scenarios allowed assessing whether the modelled effects of climate change on flows were statistically significant. Results indicate that spring and summer-fall peak flows were reduced on average by 30 percent and 12 percent, respectively, using the Echam4 model derived scenarios. The Hadcm3 model produced a weaker signal that was not statistically significant. The CGCM2 model produced a statistically significant reduction in spring peak flows of 8 percent on average, whereas the simulated reduction in summer flows was not statistically significant for many of the return periods considered. Many sources of uncertainties were partially considered in this study. One is the downscaling of the GCM climatology at the watershed scale. The approach employed to generate the future climate scenarios changed the precipitation variability through an adjustment of the parameters of the Gamma distribution function used to model precipitation amounts. Whether this approach is truly typical of climate change effect remains to be ascertained. Using more physically based hydrological models would help reduce uncertainties in climate change impacts studies.
机译：这项研究旨在评估气候变化对加拿大魁北克省Chateauguay流域的水文影响。选择了三个涵盖各种气候敏感性的全球气候模型（GCM），并使用其输出通过简单的降水量和温度转换规则来调整随机天气发生器的参数。从当前（1960年至1990年）和未来（2040年至2060年）气候的GCM中提取月降水量和温度的值。选择了国际气候变化专门委员会B2排放情景。它代表一个平均情况，大约相当于大气中CO_2浓度的两倍。借助随机产生的气候情景，可以评估气候变化对流量的模拟影响是否具有统计显着性。结果表明，使用Echam4模型得出的情景，春季和夏季的秋季高峰流量分别平均减少了30％和12％。 Hadcm3模型产生的信号较弱，在统计上不显着。 CGCM2模型产生的春季高峰流量平均降低了8％，具有统计意义，而对于许多考虑的回归期，夏季流量的模拟降低均无统计学意义。本研究部分考虑了许多不确定性来源。一是在分水岭范围内，GCM气候学的规模缩小。生成未来气候情景所采用的方法通过调整用于模拟降水量的伽马分布函数的参数来改变降水变化。这种方法是否确实是气候变化影响的典型代表，尚待确定。使用更多基于物理的水文模型将有助于减少气候变化影响研究的不确定性。

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