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首页> 外文期刊>Forest Ecology and Management >Process-based modelling of the severity and impact of foliar pest attack on eucalypt plantation productivity under current and future climates
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Process-based modelling of the severity and impact of foliar pest attack on eucalypt plantation productivity under current and future climates

机译：基于过程的叶面害虫侵袭的严重程度和对桉树人工林生产力的建模，当前和未来的气候

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摘要

We examined the impacts of a defoliating pest, Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), on rotation-length Eucalyptus globulus plantation productivity under current and future climates by using the ecoclimatic species niche model CLIMEX to generate severity, frequency and seasonality scenarios for MLD for specific E. globulus sites. These scenarios were used as inputs to the process-based forest productivity model CABALA. Climate projections from two global climate models were used to drive CABALA with either no or full acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated atmospheric CO assumed. In addition we varied water and nitrogen availability to examine the impacts of different severities of MLD on plantation productivity across environmental gradients. We predicted that, under current climatic conditions, rotation-length reductions in V associated with MLD damage would be no greater than 12%, with an across-site average of 6%. There was considerable between-site variation in predictions that reflected variation in site productivity. Under future climates, we predicted that MLD may reduce rotation length V by as much as 42%, although the reduction averaged across all sites was 11%. The predicted impact of MLD on V was greatest at lower productivity sites. The importance of N and water availability in recovery following MLD attack was highlighted. Uncertainty in model predictions revolved around the climate models used and assumptions of degree of photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO. Large differences in predicted impact of MLD were associated with this uncertainty. Our results suggest that the effects of defoliation due to pests on plantation productivity should not be ignored when considering future management of forest plantations. The approach developed here provides managers with a tool to appraise risk and examine possible impacts of management interventions designed to reduce or manage risk.
机译：我们通过使用生态气候物种生态位模型CLIMEX生成特定E的MLD的严重程度，频率和季节性情景，研究了叶脱落的病原真菌叶霉菌叶病（MLD）对当前和未来气候下自转长度桉树人工林生产力的影响globulus网站这些方案用作基于过程的森林生产力模型CABALA的输入。来自两个全球气候模型的气候预测被用来驱动CABALA，假设没有或没有使光合作用完全适应大气中的CO升高。此外，我们改变了水和氮的有效性，以研究不同严重程度的MLD对整个环境梯度对人工林生产力的影响。我们预测，在当前气候条件下，与MLD损害相关的V的旋转长度减少量将不超过12％，跨站点平均减少6％。站点间的差异很大，反映了站点生产力的变化。在未来的气候下，我们预计MLD可能会将轮播长度V减少多达42％，尽管所有站点的平均减少幅度为11％。在生产率较低的地方，MLD对V的预期影响最大。强调了氮和水的可用性对MLD袭击后恢复的重要性。模型预测的不确定性围绕所使用的气候模型以及光合作用程度对CO升高的假设进行。MLD预测影响的巨大差异与这种不确定性有关。我们的研究结果表明，在考虑未来对人工林的管理时，不应忽略由于害虫引起的落叶对人工林生产力的影响。此处开发的方法为管理人员提供了一种评估风险并检查旨在降低或管理风险的管理干预措施可能产生的影响的工具。

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