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Alcohol calculations and their uncertainty

机译：酒精计算及其不确定性

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A dilution model is widely used to link blood alcohol concentration and the quantity of alcohol consumed. Whilst some authors use the total body water formulation of that model, others use the Widmark Factor formulation. A paper by Forrest gave a table of example values of the Widmark Factor and Barbour, based on Forrest's work and using Forrest's computer program, subsequently presented Forrest's results by way of a chart. Whilst the results of Forrest and Barbour are often used interchangeably, there is a significant difference between them on the factors for women. This paper examines the source of the unexpected discrepancy. It is essential to quote an error range, in blood alcohol concentration calculations, for the results. The extent of that error range was investigated by Gullberg who also employed the Widmark Factor formulation. Gullberg concluded that when reporting a calculated blood alcohol concentration, a coefficient of variation of +/- 21% should be applied. Similarly, Gullberg concluded that when calculating the volume of drink, a coefficient of variation of 121/2% should be applied. The present paper derives and publishes the formulae for calculating this coefficient of variation. It is then shown that Gullberg's conclusions are mistaken: the coefficient of variation is not some fixed percentage but must be calculated in each case.
机译：稀释模型被广泛用于链接血液酒精浓度和消耗的酒精量。虽然有些作者使用该模型的全身水配方，但其他作者使用Widmark Factor配方。 Forrest的论文根据Forrest的工作并使用Forrest的计算机程序，给出了Widmark因子和Barbour的示例值的表格，随后通过图表的形式展示了Forrest的结果。尽管《阿甘正传》和《巴伯》的结果经常可以互换使用，但在女性因素上它们之间却有很大差异。本文研究了意料之外的差异的根源。在血液酒精浓度计算中，必须为结果引用一个误差范围。该误差范围的程度由Gullberg调查，他还采用了Widmark Factor公式。 Gullberg得出结论，当报告计算出的血液酒精浓度时，应采用+/- 21％的变异系数。同样，古尔伯格（Gullberg）得出结论，在计算饮料量时，应采用121/2％的变化系数。本文推导并发布了计算该变化系数的公式。然后表明，古尔伯格的结论是错误的：变异系数不是固定的百分比，而是在每种情况下都必须计算。

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