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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >A risk based PML estimation method for single-storey reinforced concrete industrial buildings and its impact on earthquake insurance rates
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A risk based PML estimation method for single-storey reinforced concrete industrial buildings and its impact on earthquake insurance rates

机译：单层钢筋混凝土工业建筑物基于风险的PML估计方法及其对地震保险费率的影响

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摘要

Estimating earthquake losses is an important issue for many private and public bodies. As a major stakeholder, insurers need realistic probable maximum loss (PML) values to foresee the possible losses they would face after a major earthquake and also to calculate optimal insurance premiums. Insurers generally use fragility curves to manage their portfolio by calculating overall PML values. There are, however, serious impacts of risk based PML estimation on earthquake insurance rates, and in this respect fragility curves, which represent regional losses rather than individual losses, could lead to suboptimal decisions. In this study, a rapid earthquake loss estimation methodology, which can be used even by the non-experts in earthquake engineering without conducting comprehensive structural analyses, is proposed for single-storey reinforced concrete industrial buildings based on parameters determined after investigating more than 80 industrial building projects in Turkey. 384 analytical structural loss estimation curves were obtained via the non-linear structural performance analysis method proposed in the 2007 Turkish Seismic Design Code. To provide a detailed evaluation of the proposed methodology's performance, fragility curves representative of the structural types and the design levels of the buildings investigated were also developed. Finally, total insurance premiums corresponding to PML values of the inventory buildings were calculated, using the two aforementioned estimation methods and others previously published, by addressing issues such as reinsurance cost, capital cost and profit. Results reveal considerable differences in PML values and eventually earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated between the risk based structural loss estimation method and the existing methods, indicating possibilities for improved portfolio analysis and management tools.
机译：对于许多私人和公共机构而言，估算地震损失是一个重要问题。作为主要利益相关者，保险公司需要现实的可能的最大损失（PML）值，以预测大地震后可能面临的损失，并计算最佳保险费。保险公司通常使用脆弱性曲线通过计算整体PML值来管理其资产组合。但是，基于风险的PML估计对地震保险费率会产生严重影响，在这方面，代表区域损失而非个人损失的脆弱性曲线可能会导致决策欠佳。在这项研究中，基于对80多个工业建筑进行调查后确定的参数，提出了一种用于单层钢筋混凝土工业建筑的快速地震损失估算方法，该方法甚至可以由地震工程领域的非专业人员使用，而无需进行全面的结构分析。在土耳其建设项目。通过2007年土耳其地震设计规范中提出的非线性结构性能分析方法，获得了384条分析性结构损失估算曲线。为了提供对所提出方法的性能的详细评估，还绘制了代表所研究建筑物的结构类型和设计水平的脆性曲线。最后，通过解决诸如再保险成本，资本成本和利润等问题，使用上述两种估计方法以及先前发布的其他方法，计算了与库存建筑物的PML值相对应的总保险费。结果显示，基于风险的结构损失估算方法与现有方法之间，所调查建筑物的PML值以及最终的地震保险费率存在很大差异，这表明有可能改进投资组合分析和管理工具。

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