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Seismic risk assessment for mainland Portugal

机译：葡萄牙大陆的地震风险评估

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摘要

The assessment of the seismic risk at a national scale represents an important resource in order to introduce measures that may reduce potential losses due to future earthquakes. This evaluation results from the combination of three components: seismic hazard, structural vulnerability and exposure data. In this study, a review of existing studies focusing on each one of these areas is carried out, and used together with data from the 2011 Building Census in Portugal to compile the required input models for the evaluation of seismic hazard and risk. In order to better characterize the epistemic uncertainty in the calculations, several approaches are considered within a logic tree structure, such as the consideration of different seismic source zonations, the employment of vulnerability functions derived based on various damage criteria and the employment of distinct spatial resolutions in the exposure model. The aim of this paper is thus to provide an overview of the recent developments regarding the different aspects that influence the seismic hazard and risk in Portugal, as well as an up-to-date identification of the regions that are more vulnerable to earthquakes, together with the expected losses for a probability of exceedance of 10 % in 50 years. The results from the present study were obtained through the OpenQuake engine, the open-source software for seismic risk and hazard assessment developed within the global earthquake model (GEM) initiative.
机译：在国家范围内对地震风险进行评估是一项重要资源，以便采取措施减少可能因未来地震造成的潜在损失。该评估是由三个部分的组合得出的：地震危险，结构脆弱性和暴露数据。在这项研究中，对现有研究进行了回顾，重点关注这些领域中的每一个领域，并将这些研究与2011年葡萄牙建筑普查的数据一起用于编制所需的输入模型，以评估地震危险性和风险。为了更好地表征计算中的认识不确定性，在逻辑树结构中考虑了几种方法，例如考虑不同的震源分区，采用基于各种破坏准则得出的脆弱性函数以及采用不同的空间分辨率在曝光模型中。因此，本文的目的是概述影响葡萄牙地震危险性和风险的不同方面的最新发展，以及对更易受地震影响的地区的最新信息。预期损失在50年内超过10％的可能性。本研究的结果是通过OpenQuake引擎获得的，OpenQuake引擎是在全球地震模型（GEM）倡议下开发的用于地震风险和灾害评估的开源软件。

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