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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >Retrospective Prediction of Macroseismic Intensities Using Strong Ground Motion Simulation: The Case of the 1978 Thessaloniki (Greece) Earthquake (M6.5)
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Retrospective Prediction of Macroseismic Intensities Using Strong Ground Motion Simulation: The Case of the 1978 Thessaloniki (Greece) Earthquake (M6.5)

机译：使用强地面运动模拟对宏观地震烈度的回顾性预测：以1978年塞萨洛尼基（希腊）地震（M6.5）为例

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摘要

The densely populated city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece) is situated in~the vicinity of active seismic faults, capable of producing moderate to strong earthquakes. The city has been severely affected by such events several times during the last 15 centuries. The most recent event occurred on 20 June 1978 (M6.5) in the Mygdonian graben, with an epicentral distance of about 30 km, causing extended damage in the city, with macroseismic intensities between MSK V+ and VIII+. The majority of buildings affected by the earthquake were of reinforced-concrete typology, typical to many southern European metropolitan areas. The source properties of the normal-faulting causative event and the source-to-city propagation path are well known from previous studies. The soil structure under the metropolitan area of Thessaloniki is assigned NEHRP categories B, C, D on the basis of geotechnical and geologic information and single-station ambient-noise measurements. A finite source model and various rupture scenarios of the June 1978 earthquake are used to perform forward stochastic modeling of strong ground motion in terms of peak ground and spectral acceleration. Rock motion is assessed under the city and it is transferred to the surface in accordance with the respective soil category. A GIS tool is employed to compare the estimated strong-motion parameters with the observed detailed damage pattern induced by the 1978 earthquake. For selected natural periods, a satisfactory correlation is established between macroseismic intensity and peak ground and spectral acceleration, thus encouraging the application of stochastic modeling for generating realistic ground-shaking scenarios in metropolitan areas.
机译：塞萨洛尼基（希腊北部）人口稠密的城市位于活跃的地震断层附近，能够产生中度到强烈的地震。在过去的15个世纪中，这座城市多次受到此类事件的严重影响。最近的一次事件发生在1978年6月20日（M6.5）的Mygdonian grab沟中，震中距约30 km，造成了该市的大范围破坏，MSK V +和VIII +之间发生了大地震。受地震影响的大多数建筑物都是钢筋混凝土类型的，这是许多南欧大都市地区的典型特征。从先前的研究中，众所周知，正常断层致因事件的源属性和源到城市的传播路径。根据岩土和地质信息以及单站环境噪声测量结果，塞萨洛尼基大都会地区的土壤结构被划分为NEHRP B，C，D类。 1978年6月地震的有限源模型和各种破裂情景用于根据峰值地面和频谱加速度对强地面运动进行正向随机建模。岩石运动在城市下进行评估，并根据各自的土壤类别转移到地面。使用GIS工具将估计的强运动参数与1978年地震引起的详细破坏模式进行比较。对于选定的自然周期，在大地震强度与峰值地面和频谱加速度之间建立了令人满意的相关性，因此鼓励了随机模型在大城市地区生成现实的地面震动情景中的应用。

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