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首页> 外文期刊>Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change >The vulnerability of hydropower production in the Zambezi River Basin to the impacts of climate change and irrigation development
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The vulnerability of hydropower production in the Zambezi River Basin to the impacts of climate change and irrigation development

机译：赞比西河流域水力发电的脆弱性对气候变化和灌溉发展的影响

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摘要

The Zambezi River Basin in southern Africa is relatively undeveloped from both a hydropower and irrigated agriculture perspective, despite the existence of the large Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. Accelerating economic growth increases the potential for competition for water between hydropower and irrigated agriculture, and climate change will add additional stresses to this system. The objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of major existing and planned new hydropower plants to changes in climate and upstream irrigation demand. Our results show that Kariba is highly vulnerable to a drying climate, potentially reducing average electricity generation by 12 %. Furthermore, the expansion of Kariba generating capacity is unlikely to deliver the expected increases in production even under a favourable climate. The planned Batoka Gorge plant may also not be able to reach the anticipated production levels from the original feasibility study. Cahora Bassa's expansion is viable under a wetting climate, but its potential is less likely to be realised under a drying climate. The planned Mphanda Nkuwa plant can reach expected production levels under both climates if hydropower is given water allocation priority, but not if irrigation is prioritised, which is likely. For both Cahora Bassa and Mphanda Nkuwa, prioritising irrigation demand over hydropower could severely compromise these plants' output. Therefore, while climate change is the most important overall driver of variation in hydropower potential, increased irrigation demand will also have a major negative impact on downstream plants in Mozambique. This implies that climate change and upstream development must be explicitly incorporated into both project and system expansion planning.
机译：尽管存在大型Kariba和Cahora Bassa水坝，但从水力发电和灌溉农业的角度来看，非洲南部的赞比西河流域相对较不发达。加速的经济增长增加了水力发电和灌溉农业之间争夺水的可能性，而气候变化将给该系统带来更多压力。这项研究的目的是评估现有的和计划中的主要新水电站在气候变化和上游灌溉需求方面的脆弱性。我们的结果表明，Kariba极易遭受干旱气候的影响，有可能使平均发电量降低12％。此外，即使在有利的气候下，Kariba发电能力的扩大也不大可能实现预期的产量增长。计划中的Batoka峡谷工厂也可能无法达到原始可行性研究中的预期产量。卡哈拉·巴萨（Cahora Bassa）的扩张在潮湿的气候下是可行的，但在干旱的气候下，其潜力却不太可能实现。如果优先考虑水力发电，则计划中的姆潘达·恩库瓦电厂在两种气候条件下都可以达到预期的生产水平，但如果优先考虑灌溉，则不可能达到预期的产量水平。对于卡奥拉·巴萨（Cahora Bassa）和姆潘达·恩库瓦（Mphanda Nkuwa）而言，将灌溉需求置于水力发电之上可能会严重损害这些电厂的产量。因此，尽管气候变化是水电潜力变化的最重要的总体驱动因素，但灌溉需求的增加也将对莫桑比克的下游工厂产生重大负面影响。这意味着必须将气候变化和上游发展明确纳入项目和系统扩展计划中。

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