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Order effects in contingency learning: The role of task complexity

机译：偶然性学习中的顺序效应：任务复杂性的作用

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Dennis and Ahn (2001) found that during contingency learning, initial evidence influences causal judgments more than does later evidence (a primacy effect), whereas Lopez, Shanks, Almara, and Fernandez (1998) found the opposite (a recency effect). We propose that in contingency learning, people use initial evidence to develop an anchoring hypothesis that tends to be underadjusted by later evidence, resulting in a primacy effect. Thus, factors interfering with initial hypothesis development, such as simultaneously learning too many contingencies, as in Lopez et al., would reduce the primacy effect. Experiment 1 showed a primacy effect with learning contingencies involving only one outcome but no primacy effect with two outcomes. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the magnitude of the primacy effect correlated with participants' verbal working memory capacity. It is concluded that a critical moderator for exhibition of the primacy effect is task complexity, presumably because it interferes with initial hypothesis development.
机译：Dennis和Ahn（2001）发现，在权变学习中，最初的证据对因果判断的影响要大于后来的证据（首要效应），而Lopez，Shanks，Almara和Fernandez（1998）发现了相反的事实（即新近效应）。我们建议，在权变学习中，人们使用初始证据来发展锚定假设，而该假设往往会被后来的证据所调整，从而产生首要效应。因此，如Lopez等人所述，干扰初始假设发展的因素（例如同时学习太多意外事件）将降低首要效应。实验1显示了具有学习偶然性的首要效应，该突发事件仅涉及一个结果，而没有涉及两个结果的首要效应。实验2表明，首要效应的大小与参与者的言语工作记忆能力有关。结论是，展示首要性的关键主持人是任务复杂性，大概是因为它干扰了最初的假设发展。

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