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Confidence and accuracy in deductive reasoning

机译：演绎推理的信心和准确性

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摘要

In two experiments, we investigated the relationship between confidence and accuracy in syllogistic reasoning. Participants judged the validity of conclusions and provided confidence ratings twice for each problem: once quickly and again after further deliberation. Correlations between confidence and accuracy were small or nonexistent. In addition, confidence and accuracy were mediated by different variables. Confidence judgments appeared to reflect external cues, so that confidence was greater when the participants were allowed additional time to think about the problem, as well as when the conclusion was either believable or unbelievable, rather than neutral. In contrast, accuracy changed little as a function of the amount of time available and did not differ for believable and neutral problems. These data support a model in which initial decisions are made quickly, on the basis of heuristic cues, and analytic processes are used to justify or rationalize the earlier decision.
机译：在两个实验中，我们研究了三段论推理中置信度和准确性之间的关系。参与者对结论的有效性进行了判断，并针对每个问题两次给出了置信度评分：一次又一次地在进一步审议之后。置信度和准确性之间的相关性很小或不存在。另外，置信度和准确性由不同的变量介导。信心判断似乎反映了外部线索，因此，当参与者有更多时间思考问题时，以及结论是令人信服或令人难以置信而不是中立时，信心就会更大。相反，精度随可用时间的变化很小，并且对于可信的中立问题没有变化。这些数据支持一种模型，在该模型中，可以基于启发式提示快速做出初始决策，并使用分析过程来证明或合理化先前的决策。

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