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Limits of phenological modelling in tree species

机译：树种物候模型的局限性

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In Mid-Europe perennial species have a dedicated phase during late autumn and winter, where no growth can be observed, the so-called endodormancy. To go through and finish this phase cool temperatures are required. Following this, a period of warmer temperatures is required to see new visible growth. Modelling the then visible phenological stages such as bud break and flowering is difficult and currently only achieved by relatively simplified modelling techniques.Such models are basically black box models and are not mechanistic. Nevertheless, such models,once fitted to a given environment, can be very good for prediction for the next few years.In this time frame the uncertainty of the models can be quantified well. However, when applying them to mid and long-term forecasts such as required in impact modelling of climate change research, the uncertainty is not quantifiable any more and predictions consequently are of little value. This paper demonstrates the basic problems in phenological modelling of early season growth stages and presents possible solutions.
机译：在欧洲中部，多年生物种在深秋和冬季处于一个专用阶段，在那里没有观察到生长，即所谓的内嗅。为了完成此阶段，需要凉爽的温度。此后，需要一段时间的高温才能看到新的可见光。很难对当时可见的物候阶段（例如芽破裂和开花）进行建模，目前只能通过相对简化的建模技术来实现。此类模型基本上是黑盒模型，不是机制。但是，一旦适合给定环境，这些模型就可以很好地用于未来几年的预测。在此时间范围内，可以很好地量化模型的不确定性。但是，将它们应用于气候变化研究的影响模型中所要求的中长期预测时，不确定性不再可量化，因此预测的价值很小。本文论证了早期生长阶段物候模型的基本问题，并提出了可能的解决方案。

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