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Market Analysis

机译:市场分析

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With trade reduced to a minimum, heavy production cuts at smelters have so far failed to balance the market. We expect little change in the short term, and poor economic indicators, together with all-time high levels of stock, will weigh on aluminium prices for some time. In the Chinese market, a loosening of credit conditions appears to have started to boost sentiment. We see the SHFE-LME spread continuing to favour imports of aluminium into the Chinese market over the next few months. Expect prices to trade sideways in the short term, neither rising nor declining noticeably, but with a risk on the downside if economic indicators scheduled to be released over the coming weeks continue to disappoint. MBR does not discard short-lived rallies driven by short-covering over the next few weeks, but do not expect a sustainable recovery soon.
机译:由于贸易减少到最低限度,冶炼厂大幅减产至今未能平衡市场。我们预计短期内不会有太大变化,糟糕的经济指标以及历史最高水平的库存将在一段时间内对铝价构成压力。在中国市场,信贷条件的放松似乎已经开始提振市场情绪。我们认为,未来几个月,SHFE-LME价差将继续有利于铝材进入中国市场的进口。预计价格在短期内将横盘整理,既不​​会明显上升也不会下降,但是如果计划在未来几周内发布的经济指标继续令人失望,则存在下行风险。 MBR不会在接下来的几周内抛弃因空头回补而导致的短暂反弹,但并不期望很快会持续复苏。

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