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Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

机译：西西里岛墨西拿的海啸风险评估-意大利

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摘要

We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.
机译：我们对墨西拿市进行了首次详细的海啸风险评估，该市是过去几个世纪中最具破坏力的海啸袭击之一，发生于1908年。在海啸灾害评估中，概率是通过新的通用模块化贝叶斯工具进行概率海啸灾害评估的。人员和建筑物的损失估算考虑到直接收集或由以下机构提供的数据：（i）意大利国家统计局，提供有关人口，建筑物以及许多相关社会方面的信息; （ii）意大利国家领土局，根据建筑物的类型（住宅，商业，工业）和位置（街道）提供建筑物的最新经济价值; （iii）火车和港口当局。对于人类，考虑到某些因素（例如游客人数）与实际情况相比，可能会变化一个数量级，因此引入了时间解释因素，并根据不同地方（私人和公共场所）每天的小时数和季节来计算时间一月至八月。由于海啸风险是沿海地区暴涨水平的函数，因此将可变海啸风险区定义为墨西拿海岸可能发生海啸泛滥的区域。

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