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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Hydro-meteorological evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for Mediterranean heavy precipitating events
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Hydro-meteorological evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for Mediterranean heavy precipitating events

机译：地中海大降水事件对流允许集合预报系统的水文气象评估

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An assessment of the performance of different convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) is performed, with a focus on Heavy Precipitating Events (HPEs). The convective-scale EPS configuration includes perturbations of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) by using a global ensemble to provide LBCs, initial conditions (ICs) through an ensemble data assimilation technique and perturbations of microphysical parameterisations to account for part of model errors. A probabilistic evaluation is conducted over an 18-day period. A clear improvement is found when uncertainties on LBCs and ICs are considered together, but the chosen microphysical perturbations have no significant impact on probabilistic scores. Innovative evaluation processes for three HPE case studies are implemented. First, maxima diagrams provide a multi-scale analysis of intense rainfall. Second, an hydrological evaluation is performed through the computation of discharge forecasts usinghourly ensemble precipitation forecasts as an input. All ensembles behave similarly, but differences are found highlighting the impact of microphysical perturbations on HPEs forecasts, especially for cases involving complex small-scale processes.
机译：对不同对流允许整体预报系统（EPS）的性能进行了评估，重点是强降水事件（HPE）。对流规模的EPS配置包括通过使用整体集合提供LBC的横向边界条件（LBC）的扰动，通过集合数据同化技术的初始条件（IC）以及微物理参数化的扰动以解决部分模型误差。在18天的时间内进行概率评估。当一起考虑LBC和IC的不确定性时，可以发现明显的改善，但是所选的微物理扰动对概率分数没有显着影响。实施了三个HPE案例研究的创新评估流程。首先，最大值图提供了强降雨的多尺度分析。其次，以每小时整体降水量预报为输入，通过计算流量预报进行水文评估。所有合奏的行为都相似，但是发现差异突出了微物理扰动对HPE预测的影响，特别是对于涉及复杂的小规模过程的情况。

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