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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Heavy snow loads in Finnish forests respond regionally asymmetrically to projected climate change
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Heavy snow loads in Finnish forests respond regionally asymmetrically to projected climate change

机译：芬兰森林中的大雪负荷对预计的气候变化在区域上不对称地做出响应

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This study examined the impacts of projected climate change on heavy snow loads on Finnish forests, where snow-induced forest damage occurs frequently. For snow-load calculations, we used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using a quantile-mapping method. Our results suggest that projected climate warming results in regionally asymmetric response on heavy snow loads in Finnish forests. In eastern and northern Finland, the annual maximum snow loads on tree crowns were projected to increase during the present century, as opposed to southern and western parts of the country. The change was rather similar both for heavy rime loads and wet snow loads, as well as for frozen snow loads. Only the heaviest dry snow loads were projected to decrease over almost the whole of Finland. Our results are aligned with previous snowfall projections, typically indicating increasing heavy snowfalls over the areas with mean temperature below -8 degrees C. In spite of some uncertainties related to our results, we conclude that the risk for snow-induced forest damage is likely to increase in the future in the eastern and northern parts of Finland, i.e. in the areas experiencing the coldest winters in the country. The increase is partly due to the increase in wet snow hazards but also due to more favourable conditions for rime accumulation in a future climate that is more humid but still cold enough.
机译：这项研究检查了预计的气候变化对芬兰森林积雪的影响，芬兰森林经常发生积雪引起的森林破坏。对于雪荷载的计算，我们使用了具有代表性的浓度途径（RCP）情景RCP4.5和RCP8.5下五个全球气候模型的每日数据，并使用分位数映射方法将其统计缩减为高分辨率网格。我们的结果表明，预计的气候变暖导致芬兰森林对大雪负荷的区域不对称响应。在芬兰的东部和北部，与本国的南部和西部地区相反，预计本世纪树冠上的年度最大雪负荷将增加。无论是重的霜冻载荷和湿的雪载荷，还是冷冻的雪载荷，变化都非常相似。预计在整个芬兰几乎只有最大的干雪负荷减少。我们的结果与先前的降雪预测一致，通常表明平均温度低于-8摄氏度的地区大雪量有所增加。尽管与我们的结果相关的不确定性，我们得出的结论是，降雪引起的森林破坏的风险可能是芬兰东部和北部，即该国冬季最冷的地区，未来的增长趋势。增长的部分原因是由于湿雪危害的增加，也归因于未来湿度更高但仍然足够寒冷的霜冻积累的更有利条件。

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