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A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

机译：法国使用的洪水频率分析方法的数据比较

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摘要

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) aims at estimating quantiles with large return periods for an extreme discharge variable. Many FFA implementations are used in operational practice in France. These implementations range from the estimation of a pre-specified distribution to continuous simulation approaches using a rainfall simulator coupled with a rainfall-runoff model. This diversity of approaches raises questions regarding the limits of each implementation and calls for a nation-wide comparison of their predictive performances. This paper presents the results of a national comparison of the main FFA implementations used in France. More accurately, eight implementations are considered, corresponding to the local, regional and local-regional estimation of Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, as well as the local and regional versions of a continuous simulation approach. A data-based comparison framework is applied to these eight competitors to evaluate their predictive performances in terms of reliability and stability, using daily flow data from more than 1000 gauging stations in France. Results from this comparative exercise suggest that two implementations dominate their competitors in terms of predictive performances, namely the local version of the continuous simulation approach and the local-regional estimation of a GEV distribution. More specific conclusions include the following: (i) the Gumbel distribution is not suitable for Mediterranean catchments, since this distribution demonstrably leads to an underestimation of flood quantiles; (ii) the local estimation of a GEV distribution is not recommended, because the difficulty in estimating the shape parameter results in frequent predictive failures; (iii) all the purely regional implementations evaluated in this study displayed a quite poor reliability, suggesting that prediction in completely ungauged catchments remains a challenge.
机译：洪水频率分析（FFA）的目的在于估算极端排放变量具有较大返回周期的分位数。法国的操作实践中使用了许多FFA实现。这些实现方式包括从预先指定的分布估计到使用降雨模拟器和降雨径流模型的连续模拟方法。这种方法的多样性提出了关于每种实施方案的局限性的问题，并要求在全国范围内对其预测绩效进行比较。本文介绍了法国使用的主要FFA实施方案的全国比较结果。更准确地说，考虑了八个实现，分别对应于Gumbel和广义极值（GEV）分布的本地，区域和本地区域估计，以及连续模拟方法的本地和区域版本。将基于数据的比较框架应用于这八个竞争对手，以使用来自法国1000多个计量站的每日流量数据评估其预测性能的可靠性和稳定性。这项比较研究的结果表明，在预测性能方面，两种实现方法在其竞争者中占主导地位，即连续仿真方法的本地版本和GEV分布的本地区域估计。更具体的结论如下：（i）Gumbel分布不适合地中海流域，因为这种分布显然导致对洪水分位数的低估; （ii）不建议局部估计GEV分布，因为估计形状参数的困难会导致频繁的预测性失败; （iii）在这项研究中评估的所有纯区域实施方案都显示出相当差的可靠性，这表明在完全无污染的集水区进行预测仍然是一个挑战。

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