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Determination of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides by a probabilistic and empirical method

机译:用概率和经验方法确定浅层滑坡的降雨阈值

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摘要

Rainfall-induced landslides not only cause property loss, but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in mountainous areas in China. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent with rainfall threshold values used in an early warning system at a regional scale for the occurrence of landslides. However, the limited availability of data always causes difficulties. In this paper we present a method to calculate rainfall threshold values with limited data sets for two rainfall parameters: hourly rainfall intensity and accumulated precipitation. The method has been applied to the Huangshan region, in the province of Anhui, China. Four early warning levels (zero, outlook, attention, and warning) have been adopted and the corresponding rainfall threshold values have been defined by probability lines. A validation procedure showed that this method can significantly enhance the effectiveness of a warning system, and finally reduce and mitigate the risk of shallow landslides in mountainous regions.
机译:降雨引起的山体滑坡不仅造成财产损失,而且每年在中国山区造成大量人员伤亡。这些损失和人员伤亡可以在某种程度上通过预警系统中使用的降雨阈值在区域范围内避免滑坡的发生而避免。然而,有限的数据可用性总是造成困难。在本文中,我们提出了一种方法,用于使用两个降雨参数(小时降雨强度和累积降水)的有限数据集来计算降雨阈值。该方法已应用于中国安徽省的黄山地区。已经采用了四个预警级别(零,展望,关注和警告),并且相应的降雨阈值已通过概率线定义。验证程序表明,该方法可以显着提高预警系统的有效性,并最终减少和减轻山区浅层滑坡的风险。

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